With the new league year kicking off and NFL free agency in full swing, Over/Unders for the 2026 season are out.
There’s plenty of value to take advantage of from now until early September, but there’s one sleeper team to jump on now before the market adjusts.
The Saints won’t be on anyone’s Super Bowl shortlist, but they showed just enough, led by a breakout rookie quarterback, to prove that they might make some noise this fall.
After going 1-7 through Week 8 with Spencer Rattler behind center, the Saints handed the starting quarterback job to Tyler Shough, who they took 40th overall out of Louisville in the 2025 draft.
Shough proved to be starter-worthy, at the very least, right off the bat, throwing for 2,384 with 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions in 11 total appearances.
The Shough experience helped New Orleans, which went 5-4, including three key divisional wins, two over the Panthers and another over the Falcons, with the first-year signal-caller as their starter, salvage what was looking to be a league-worst season through the first half of the year.
Quietly, the Saints’ defense was one of the best in the NFL over that same stretch, allowing just 4.51 yards per play from Week 9 on, which was the fourth-fewest among all teams, behind only the Seahawks, Broncos, and Vikings, all of which were widely considered the class of the league.
The Saints’ offense should be even better with a year under Shough’s belt, but they also upgraded the offense during the early days of free agency.
New Orleans signed former Jaguars running back Travis Etienne to a four-year, $52 million deal, likely replacing longtime ball-carrier Alvin Kamara, who could either be traded or possibly retire.
Etienne was excellent in a bounce-back year in 2025 for Jacksonville, rushing for 1,107 yards and 13 total touchdowns, helping the Jaguars win the AFC South.
They also shored up their interior offensive line and defense, adding guard David Edwards and linebacker Kaden Elliss on multi-year free agent deals.
Perhaps most importantly, the Saints’ schedule is about as soft as they come.
Not only do they get to face their so-so NFC South rivals, the Panthers, Falcons, and Buccaneers, twice each, but they get a last-place schedule after finishing in the cellar of the division.
That means matchups with the Browns, Raiders, Cardinals, and Giants.
Betting on the NFL?
Only Cleveland has an easier strength of schedule based on 2025 results.
The Saints are headed in the right direction and have the perfect setup to approach or break .500.
In what is likely the weakest division in the league, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Saints can come out on top.
The play: New Orleans Saints Over 6.5 wins (-140, FanDuel Sportsbook) and to win the NFC South (+340, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
