Ukrainian officials admit that a ‘game-changing’ development to Russian missiles is leaving Western weaponry impotent in the battle for the skies.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Vladimir Putin’s forces have been firing a variety of long-range missiles into Ukraine’s cities.
Inflicting terrible losses, these missiles can be launched hundreds of miles away by land, sea, or air. Gradually, Ukraine has been able to reduce the impact of this weaponry thanks to a combination of early-warning systems, electronic warfare, and counterstrikes on Russian launching platforms.
Early 2023 also saw Patriot missile batteries shipped to Ukraine. This mobile surface-to-air missile launcher has proven so effective in downing Russian missiles that Volodymyr Zelensky has frequently appealed for more units to be sent to his embattled country.
However, Russia has since changed both its tactics and technology, rendering many of Ukraine’s countermeasures ineffective – including the Patriot. Ukrainian sources confirmed to the Financial Times that Russia’s Iskander-M mobile system, which has a 310-mile range, and the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, which has a 298-mile range – had likely been ungraded to deceive Patriots.
It is also thought that the missiles are altering their trajectory, performing a steep dive while over the target to bamboozle the Patriot’s systems. A former Ukrainian official described it as a ‘game-changer’ for Russia.
Worryingly for Ukraine, the proof is in the numbers. Over the summer, Ukraine managed to increase the number of missiles it downed – reaching 37 per cent in August. However, in September, that plummeted to just six per cent as Russia’s new technology and tactics took hold.
A western official briefed on Patriot performance data said a ‘pattern’ had emerged in which incoming missiles behaved differently in their ‘terminal phase’. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile researcher at the University of Oslo, said manufacturers routinely mined interception data to improve performance – and it appeared Russia had done this before making software adjustments which have improved their missiles’ performance.
That change reflects Russia’s growing ability to learn gradually from its mistakes – often only after horrific losses. It will also be a concern for a number of NATO countries that rely on the Patriot system for anti-missile defence.
Having said that, Ukraine has also shown its agility in adapting to and overcoming numerous challenges in the war which has now raged for more than three years and seven months.
