New data has suggested that Russian oil and gas revenue has seen a slump. Money raised decreased by more than 10% year on year between January and April 2025. The country’s Financial Ministry blames the figure on the average oil price and extra tax payments, adding that the shortfall in revenues is expected to be £4.11billion as of the end of this year. Reuters reported yesterday that Russia’s oil price has fallen to a two-year low and below the 4,000 rouble per barrel mark. This is 40% lower than planned in the federal budget.
It comes as its overall national deficit stood at 3.225 trillion rubles (£29.3billion) or 1.5% of GDP during the same period. Officials said: “Oil and gas revenues totaled 3.727 bln rubles [£34.2million], which is lower than figures in the like period of the last year (by 10.3% year on year) predominantly in consequence of the decline of the average oil price and the one-off receipt of the extra mineral extraction tax payment for oil and gas in February 2024.”
The Financial Ministry added: “The receipt of oil and gas revenues in January – April of this year evolved at a level about their basic size but risks of their decline exists in view of weakening prices.
“The shortfall in oil and gas revenues totaling 447 bln rubles is expected as of 2025 year-end in line with the updated parameters of the socioeconomic development forecast in consequence of the oil price drop.”
It added that the shortfall could reach 12.3 bln rubles (£114.2million) in May 2025.
But Russian officials have highlighted that the country’s overall deficit was 2.09 trillion rubles (£19.2billion) less than during the same period last year.
“According to the preliminary estimate, the volume of federal budget revenues in January-April 2025 totaled 12.274 bln rubles, which is 5% more than the volume of revenues in the relevant period of 2024,” the ministry said.
Russian news service Tass reports that the deficit is largely caused by advance funding for expenses in January of this year, as well as the decline in oil and gas revenues.
Officials note that this will not affect target parameters of the structural balance for this year on the whole.