Housing and utility bills in some parts of Russia are expected to soar by up to 25% as the country’s economic meltdown worsens. Russian media reports that tariffs on housing, gas, water and electricity will go up by an average of 11.9% on July 1, but some regions will see an increase between 23% and 25%. Mortgage rates have also soared to 25% in recent months. One Russian newspaper, translated into English by the BBC’s Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg and shared on social media, says the increase will be “painful for many families”.
The same publication reports the experience of a former Russian prime minister’s sister, who has a monthly pension of 22,000 roubles (£203) but whose bills per month for a small, two-room flat amount to 18,000 (£166). This week’s Russian media reports about the state of the country’s economy come after a warning was issued that Russia’s economy is on the brink of recession.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov delivered the warning at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the annual event in Russia’s second largest city which aims to highlight the country’s economic might and court foreign investors.
Russian business news outlet RBC quoted Reshetnikov as saying “the numbers indicate cooling, but all our numbers are (like) a rearview mirror”. He said that “judging by the way businesses currently feel and the indicators, we are already, it seems to me, on the brink of going into a recession”.
Russia’s high defence spending has propped up growth and kept unemployment low despite fuelling inflation. At the same time, wages have gone up to keep pace with inflation, leaving many workers better off.
Over the long term, inflation and a lack of foreign investment threaten the economy and raise the question of how long the militarised economy can stay afloat.
Economists warn of mounting pressure on Russia’s economy and the likelihood it will stagnate due to a lack of investment in sectors outside of defence.
A slow-down would also threaten Russia’s ability to pay for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, which has been raging for more than three years.
Russian banking officials have told Bloomberg that there is a credible risk of a systemic banking crisis during the next 12 months.
Banks in Russia are said to be concerned at the level of bad debt on their balance sheets, according to the officials and documents seen by the news outlet, but not by the Express.
Bankers have reportedly raised the alarm about the number of clients failing to make loan payments amid Russia’s high interest rates.
The Central Bank of Russia this month cut its key interest rate from 21% to 20% amid complaints the sky-high rate was a threat to growth.
In the first quarter of 2025, Russia’s GDP grew 1.4% year-on-year, according to the State Statistics Service (Rosstat), quoted by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
According to CEPA, this was the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2023, when Russia’s economy began recovering from the impact of sanctions imposed by the West in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year earlier.
CEPA’s analysis notes Russia’s broader economy is holding up “so far”, but the “main drag” is oil, with Russian crude trading at an average $54.80 per barrel in April compared with $75 p/b in April 2024.
Revenues from oil are declining as a result, with news of the Iran-Israel conflict likely to have disappointed some in the Kremlin after escalating tensions sent crude prices up temporarily.