Vladimir Putin’s army could soon be running into serious shortages of manpower and weapons, according to Western officials and military experts. Russia has suffered staggering casualties since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Some officials estimate the Russian army has sustained more than a million casualties in just over three years of fighting. Over the past year, Russian forces have been able to take just 0.6% of additional Ukrainian territory at a cost of 1,500 killed or wounded per day, according to Western analysis.
The US Defence Intelligence Agency also estimates that Moscow has lost “at least 10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters and more than 10 naval vessels” since 2022.
Western military experts say the losses of equipment and manpower are reaching a critical stage for the Kremlin.
Richard Barrons, the former head of Britain’s Joint Forces Command, told the Washington Post: “Russia is very gradually taking bits of territory still, but at an unsustainably high cost.”
He added: “Russia is actually culminating in its ability to conduct an offensive.
“It is very unlikely now that the Russian military have the equipment, the people, and the training and logistics to mount an offensive that would break the Ukrainian line and — even if they did — to exploit it immediately.”
Although outgunned and outmanned, Ukraine has managed to stem the tide of Putin’s military through its clever use of technology – in particular by deploying short-range drones to attack any Russian approach.
Additionally, Ukraine has built formidable 10-mile deep defensive zones littered with mines and trenches along the frontlines.
The loss of so many tanks has forced Putin’s generals to recommission Soviet-era tanks that have stood in storage depots for years.
However, Western analysts believe the 13,000 stock is likely to run out in the next few months, making the Kremlin dependent on its production of new tanks.
Russia’s military-industrial complex currently is able to churn out 200 tanks a year.
Meanwhile, Russia’s army continues to see soldiers desert their units, as they desperately try to avoid the frontline slaughter.
Two convict soldiers absconded their unit as they were being transported from Tver to Voronezh.
A 29-year-old was convicted of robbery, theft and drug distribution, while a 41-year-old was jailed for robbery, theft and murder.
They were among a group of 18 prisoners who had signed military contracts in exchange for early release.
Earlier, 10 criminals escaped from a military training ground in the Rostov region, in a further embarrassment for Putin’s army.