Countries bordering the Baltic Sea have issued stark warnings about Vladimir Putin’s plans to escalate military conflict further into Europe.
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has cautioned that Russia is bolstering its armed forces in preparation for a “potential future war with NATO”.
Danish intelligence also predicted that Russia could be prepared to instigate a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO as weak.
Dr Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga, said: “There is a feeling that, if the trans-Atlantic bridge is not falling apart, it has been seriously damaged.”
He believes that should a Russian invasion occur tomorrow, they are “we’re a lot better prepared than a decade ago”, but admits “there is still space for progress. We still don’t have critical aerial defence”.
In response to the escalating threat, Lithuania has reintroduced military conscription, doubled its armed forces, and increased defence spending to 3.45% of GDP – one of the highest rates among NATO countries.
Katarzyna Zysk, a professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, warned that if the war in Ukraine ceases, Russia’s focus will likely shift towards rebuilding its military organisation.
Latvian intelligence suggested that under these circumstances, Russia could restore its military force to a level posing a significant threat to NATO within five years.
Since the escalation of the conflict in 2022, Russia has put on hold planned military developments along its northern borders with NATO countries, including plans to more than double the 30,000 troops stationed along its border with Finland.
Putin also ordered an increase of 180,000 troops to the Russian army in September, bringing the total to 1.5 million active service members and making it the world’s second-largest army after China.
However, a recent report from Latvian intelligence assessed the threat of Russia engaging in direct conflict with a NATO country within the next year as “low”, provided its military continues to be engaged in Ukraine.
