Fears that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could trigger state collapse – and plunge the world into nuclear chaos – are being exaggerated and weaponised by Moscow to deter the West from acting decisively, experts have warned. It comes as the White House confirmed it had suspended some weapons deliveries to Ukraine following a review of military assistance to foreign partners, sparking alarm in Kyiv and jubilation in Moscow.
The concern, long aired in Europe and now influencing US policy, is that an uncontrolled breakup of the Russian Federation would trigger chaos akin to the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s – but on a far greater scale. Speaking this week, retired French General Michel Yakovleff, a former NATO deputy chief of staff, warned: “If that happened, we would have Yugoslavia, but ten times more powerful, with thousands of nuclear warheads. And this is what Europe is very afraid of.”
He added: “The problem they see is a civil war, which, in my opinion, is a very plausible hypothesis. Russia has 17 armies.
“The situation is similar to Lebanon in 1973. There are many people who have objective reasons to grab each other by the throat.”
He said Russia’s growing reliance on repression, propaganda and militarism is driving it toward stagnation and eventual collapse, adding: “The regime is unsustainable. But that doesn’t make what comes next any safer.”
Russia expert Keir Giles of Chatham House dismisses such fears as groundless. “All the forces that caused the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia to break up simply aren’t there in Russia today. It’s the opposite.”
Regions often cited as secessionist threats are, he argues, financially dependent on Moscow. “They don’t want to split away – they want to keep receiving the subsidies that support them.”
Giles believes Russia has deliberately amplified these fears to stifle Western resolve.
“They say to their own people that the West wants to break up Russia, and they say it to the outside world to discourage interference. In the US especially, this fear has had real effect.”
He said the result is a Western strategy that prioritises avoiding Russian collapse over securing Ukrainian victory. “Russia succeeded in convincing the Biden administration that it was more dangerous to let Russia lose than to let Ukraine be destroyed.”