Russia is supplying military equipment and technology to China that may help Beijing prepare an airborne assault of Taiwan, according to a study of leaked Russian documents by a U.K.-based defense and security forum.
The Royal United Services Institute’s analysis is based on around 800 pages of documents, including contracts and lists of equipment to be supplied by Moscow to Beijing, from the Black Moon hacktivist group, which previously published some of the documents online.
It does not identify its members but describes itself in a manifesto as opposed to governments that carry out aggressive foreign policy.
The authors of the RUSI report shared some of the documents with The Associated Press and say they appear to be genuine, although parts of the documents may have been omitted or altered. AP is unable to independently verify their authenticity.
The mix of completed and apparent draft Russian documents reference meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations — including visits to Moscow — and payment and delivery timelines for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles.
They suggest that Russia has begun work on the products to be delivered but don’t contain direct evidence from the Chinese side that Beijing has paid any money or received any equipment.
The authors argue the equipment could be used to invade Taiwan. Under President Xi Jinping, China has embarked upon a broad modernization program of its armed forces with the goal of transforming it into a “world-class” military by 2050.
High ranking U.S. officials have suggested Xi ordered his military to be prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027. Beijing claims the self-governing democracy is rightfully a part of China and has not ruled out seizing the island by force.
The documents don’t mention Taiwan directly, but the analysis by the London-based institute suggests the deal would help China gain advanced parachuting capabilities that it would need to mount an invasion, potentially speeding up a timeline.
It’s not certain that China has decided to invade Taiwan, but access to Russian equipment and localized training in China means Beijing will be better equipped for a potential invasion, Danylyuk said.
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“The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,” he said, suggesting Moscow’s assistance could help speed up China’s airborne program by about 10 to 15 years.
Russia’s Kremlin, and China and Taiwan’s defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“The greatest value of the deal” to China is likely in the training and procedures for command and control of parachute forces, because Russia has “combat experience,” whereas China doesn’t, write Oleksandr Danylyuk and Jack Watling.
The analysts say Russia’s aim is to develop as a military supplier to China and fund its war in Ukraine. But Danylyuk also suggested that Moscow may want to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, distracting the U.S. from Russia’s war with Ukraine.
