The Russian economy is expected to be plunged into a recession as early as 2026 amid a stagnating economy and lack of investment. Pro-Kremlin economists at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) published analysis titled “What do the leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks show?”.
Their work assessed whether factors indicating the Russian economy’s journey into a recession, known as the SRI, had reached critical values. In April, the SRI value was 0.07, growing to 0.1 in May. The economists said the critical level is 0.18, warning that growth beyond this was “inevitable”. This comes after the Russian central bank cut interest rates from 20% to 18%, but the analysts warned this was not enough to prevent a recession.
They said the SRI value would reach a critical level in October if the key interest rate is not cut again, triggering a recession from 2026.
Sofia Donetsk, chief economist at T-Investments, said fears of a recession are not unfounded and offered a similiar timeline to the CMASF analysts.
She explained that stagnating growth across many sectors alongside a slump in investment would create a further decline in economic activity in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
This comes amid disappointing revenue streams from its two most vital exports: oil and gas. In July, the combined revenue was 787.3 billion rubles – a 27% drop compared to a year ago, the finance ministry said.
So far this year, total oil and gas revenues have dipped by 38% to 634.1 billion rubles, 543.4 billion of which came from oil companies – a 36% decline from last year.
Revenue from gas also fell by a shocking 53% to just 51.1 billion rubles.
Gazprom, the world’s largest gas company in terms of reserves and a leading producer in Russia, reported exports to Europe hit their lowest levels in the early 1970s.
The finance ministry originally thought oil and gas revenues would hit 10.94 trillion rubles by the end of the year, but this was revised to 8.32 trillion rubles – nearly a 25% drop, Business Insider reports.