Russia’s GDP is set to take a staggering hit in 2025 compared to other nations as the country continues to wrestle with a growing economic crisis. New forecasts by the UN indicate sluggish economic growth worldwide amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty, noting Donald Trump’s tariffs could have global impacts.
Major economies across the world are set for a slower GDP increase this year but Russia seems to be particularly affected. The UN predicts Moscow’s GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2025, down from its estimated increase of 4.3% in 2024 — a decrease of 186% or 2.8 percentage points. Kyrylo Shevchenko, former chief of the National Bank of Ukraine, said this is due to “labour shortages and sanctions”.
Businesses and consumers across Russia — which has been slapped with heavy Western sanctions following the war in Ukraine — have been left reeling under the effects of spiralling inflation and high interest rates.
Experts have also said decreasing oil prices have been having an impact on the Russian economy, while Moscow’s cheap oil supply is also reportedly running low.
Estimates by Russia’s official statistics agency last weekshowed the country’s GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 — three times less than the final quarter of 2024 (4.5%).
Russia is continuing to pour huge amounts of money into its war in Ukraine.
The UN is forecasting global economic growth of 2.4% this year and 2.5% next year — a drop of 0.4 percentage point each year from projections made in January. The global economy grew by an estimated 2.9% in 2024.
The US economy is also projected to fall significantly, from 2.8% last year to 1.6% this year, according to the UN.
China’s growth is expected to drop to 4.6% from 5% in 2024.
The UK is forecast to slow from 1.1% to 0.9%, however the British economy did grow at its fastest rate in more than a year in the first quarter of 2025.
Mr Shevchenko added: “Trade tensions, inflation, and rising debt are squeezing economies, especially export-dependent ones. Ukraine’s GDP may grow just 2% in 2025. Full recovery depends on security, global aid, and lasting ceasefire.”
Ukraine’s economic forecasts were not mentioned in the UN report.