Russia’s fuel crisis is at breaking point and could become Vladimir Putin’s biggest vulnerability yet, a US-based expert has claimed. David Kirichenko, an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, believes Ukraine’s deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are undermining the Kremlin’s war effort from within.
Writing for the Atlantic Council, he argued: “The recent strikes against Russia’s oil industry infrastructure are designed to directly hit Putin’s war economy and undermine his ability to continue bankrolling the invasion of Ukraine.” According to Mr Kirichenko, the strikes are no mere retribution for Russia’s past attempts to deprive Ukraine of fuel. Instead, they represent what he calls “a highly effective form of ‘direct sanctions’” at a time when Kyiv’s Western allies seem reluctant to impose harsher restrictions on Moscow’s energy exports.
The pressure on Russia’s system is already visible. The Moscow Times reports that wholesale AI-95 petrol prices have jumped almost 49 per cent since January, hitting a record £765 per tonne.
AI-92 has risen nearly 38% in the same period. Official data from Rosstat shows retail petrol prices climbed 11.2% year-on-year in July, far outpacing the 7.6% increase recorded in May.
Ukraine’s campaign has so far destroyed or disabled roughly 13% of Russia’s refining capacity since early August, knocking out major plants in Ryazan, Volgograd and Samara. Analysts estimate daily crude processing losses of up to 40,000 tonnes.
Mr Kirkichenko noted: “Even with the country’s current limited drone and missile capabilities, Ukraine is already proving itself capable of inflicting serious damage on Russia’s economically vital energy sector.”
The Kremlin’s export ban on petrol, introduced on July 28, has failed to contain the shortages. Across Russia’s Far East, queues now stretch for miles as motorists wait hours for limited rations. In Primorye and Zabaykalsky regions, filling stations have returned to Soviet-era coupons.
In occupied Crimea, Moscow’s own governor Sergei Aksyonov admitted supplies could remain unstable “for up to a month more” and warned the problem “may not fully resolve until the broader conflict ends.”
Mr Kirichenko said: “Ukraine’s long-range arsenal has expanded dramatically… making it possible to launch increasingly ambitious air offensives.”
By striking far beyond the frontlines, Kyiv is targeting not only Russia’s military industry but also the fuel networks that keep its economy and army running.
Moscow is struggling to respond. With the central bank holding interest rates at 20%, retailers lack the credit to stockpile fuel, leaving them exposed as demand peaks during the summer travel season and harvest. Farmers in grain-producing regions are already reporting difficulties securing diesel, threatening food supplies and export revenues.
Ukraine’s capabilities are also growing. Mr Kirichenko pointed specifically to the unveiling of a new domestically produced cruise missile, dubbed the “Flamingo”.
With a range of more than 1,860 miles (3,000 kilometres) and a heavy warhead, the missile represents, in his words, a “potential trump card” for Kyiv. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said it will enter mass production by the end of the year, opening the door to strikes on refineries, ports and pipelines deep inside Russian territory.
The result is a war economy under strain on multiple fronts. Despite sacrificing hundreds of thousands of troops, Russia’s territorial gains remain minimal. Mr Kirichenko said: “While the Russian army continues to grind forward in eastern Ukraine, it is advancing at glacial pace and has managed to capture less than one per cent of Ukrainian territory in the past one thousand days.”
This stalemate, combined with mounting fuel shortages at home, may force Putin into a strategic rethink.
Mr Kirichenco concluded: “By launching waves of airstrikes across the country, Ukraine now intends to exploit Russia’s vastness and transform it into Russia’s greatest weakness. The only question is whether Ukraine can produce drones and missiles in sufficient quantities to destroy Putin’s war machine.”
For now, the answer lies in the empty petrol pumps, long queues and spiralling prices that mark the most visible sign yet that the Kremlin’s war is bleeding back into its own heartland.