Rishi Sunak knows that the next 24 hours could decide whether he leads the Conservative Party into the election or not.
If he wins tonight’s Rwanda Bill final vote on the third reading then it seems likely that the last chance to remove him as leader before an election will have gone.
After 60 of his MPs rebelled last night, Mr Sunak tonight will be relying on a key ally called Anderson to get him through. No not Lee, who resigned as Deputy Chairman to vote for former Home Office minister Robert Jenrick’s rebel amendment to toughen up the Bill.
Instead, according to sources, the Prime Minister will be leaning on Stuart Anderson, the grandly titled Vice-Chamberlain of His Majesty’s Household – but in simple parliamentary parlance, a party whip responsible for maintaining discipline.
Stuart Anderson has been described by Chief Whip Simon Hart to other Tory MPs as his “numbers man”.
It may be something about the Anderson clan but like Lee, Stuart has had an unusual path to becoming a Conservative MP.
Lee Anderson, 57, was the former miner and ex-Labour activist who switched over Jeremy Corbyn and Brexit and has become one of the leading voices on the right of the party with his very own GB News show.
Stuart Anderson, 47, left school at 16, joined up and spent nine years in the army serving in the Royal Green Jackets and was for a time a sniper who saw service during the Troubles in Northern Ireland as well as in Bosnia and Kosovo.
His story is in many ways inspirational having overcome severe mental health issues including alcoholism, depression and contemplating suicide after leaving the army before rebuilding his life as a businessman entering politics and getting elected to Parliament in 2019.
He perhaps knows as well as any MP the impact of the immigration debate as the MP for Wolverhampton South West, the seat once held by the Conservative icon (or, for many, a villain) Enoch Powell where he gave his Rivers of Blood speech on the impact of uncontrolled migration.
But now as one of Sunak’s whips, he is part of the team responsible for keeping discipline and ensuring victory tomorrow.
According to Tory sources, he was “just one out” in estimating the Second Reading Rwanda Bill rebellion in December and the intelligence he is giving Downing Street is making the whips “more relaxed” about the outcome today.
Defeat tonight could start the process of forcing Mr Sunak out with letters going in calling for a vote of confidence in his leadership. Victory makes his survival almost guaranteed with time running out for another coup before the election this year.
But while the vote is on a knife edge, here are some numbers that Anderson, Sunak and the entire Conservative Parliamentary Party will be contemplating tonight:
The magic numbers
60 – The number of Conservative MPs on the right who rebelled last night and voted for the Robert Jenrick/Bill Cash amendments.
28 – After the departure of Chris Skidmore as a Conservative MP in the new year the number of rebels needed to join Labour and the other Opposition parties and vote against the Bill to defeat it has gone down by one to 28.
40 – The estimate last night of the number of Tory rebels who are contemplating voting down the Bill or at the very least abstaining.
11 – The minimum number of Conservative MPs expected to vote against the Bill. While there may be last-minute changes of mind this would include Jenrick, former Home Secretary and would-be leader Suella Braverman, former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, Miriam Cates, Common Sense Group chairman Sir John Hayes and others.
27 – One Tory source claimed this was the maximum number of Tory MPs who might vote against the Bill, one short of the 28 needed for defeat but would be enough if others abstain.
55.5 – The percentage of voters in Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency who want illegal immigrants immediately deported. A figure which may focus his mind to rebel again tonight especially now he has been forced to resign as Deputy Chairman anyway.
169 – The number of seats the Conservatives will have left after the election according to the YouGov mega poll this week.
64 – The number of seats the Conservatives will have left after the election according to the YouGov mega poll this week if there is tactical voting.
8,000 – According to respect US pollster Frank Luntz any Conservative MP with a majority less than 8,000 will be looking for a new job after the election.
346 – The number of years the Tories have existed making them the world’s oldest political party with the above the YouGov predicted number of seats set to be the worst result in their long history.
