In the weeks leading up to his ill-fated snap election, Rishi Sunak had to plead with his deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden not to resign as an MP.
Amid the chaos of Mr Sunak plunging the Tory machine into an election that sent many in his party’s headquarters into a state of panic, Mr Dowden hoped he could finally leave the bear pit of Westminster.
However in an ominous warning of the party’s mood, the Prime Minister had to beg his deputy to stay on, fearing the optics of such a move and the blow it would be to remaining Tory candidates and MPs.
A former Government source confirmed: “Oliver definitely wanted to not stand at the election, but because he was DPM took a view – and my understanding is Rishi made this point – he could not stand because it would have just looked horrendous.”
Mr Dowden loyally remained, against his will, and while hundreds of his colleagues lost their seats he was returned to parliament with the 10th largest Conservative majority in the country.
This week rumours began swirling that he, along with Rishi Sunak and a third mysterious Tory grandee, are all planning on resigning their seats and sparking by-elections after the result of this month’s leadership race has concluded.
It would cause a massive political headache for either Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch, with Nigel Farage already warning he has a “high profile” candidate ready to fight Mr Sunak’s seat in North Yorkshire.
While potential by-elections caused by Mr Sunak and Mr Dowden would be a nightmare for the Tories, it would be a gift to former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, who openly admits that “public service remains in my DNA”.
It is believed he had been eyeing up Mr Dowden’s Hertsmere constituency even before rumours of a potential vacancy began circulating. Mr Shapps’s former constituency of Welwyn Hatfield lies just next door.
While one former senior No10 source told the Express today that they believe Mr Sunak is now certain to go before the next election – possibly standing down so his by-election can coincide with next May’s local elections – a number of senior sources now suggest Mr Shapps may have to wait some time before returning to Parliament.
A former Cabinet colleague of Mr Dowden’s revealed: “Everyone assumed that he was going to – along with Rishi when the time came later this year – ’do a David Cameron’ and go.
“If if he did do that I have no doubt Grant will go for that seat.
“I actually think Oliver has moved on a little bit… I don’t think he’s planning on calling a by-election. He’s a very proper individual who does things by the book.
“I think he has probably come to the view now that nobody’s going to thank him for calling a by-election. I would say at the moment he’s more likely to see this parliament through than not.”
Two other senior Tory sources echoed this sentiment today, with a well-placed former minister saying they are “certain” that Mr Dowden will now not call a by-election.
Amid the swirling rumours, a spokesman for Rishi Sunak earlier today issued a renewed promise that the former Prime Minister will not be resigning, despite sources close to him believing that to no longer be the case.
The spokesman said: “These suggestions are just wrong. He is not standing down as an MP.”
Grant Shapps said: “Like most Brits, I’ve been increasingly alarmed about how the first few months of this Labour government is letting our country down so badly.
“I will wait and see what the future holds, but for the time being I’m enjoying some time out of the fray seeing more of my friends and family.”
Mr Dowden was approached for comment.