Reform UK continues to top the opinion polls. The latest Find Out Now poll, for example, has Reform 15 points ahead of Labour (34 to 19), an increase on its previous poll which had Reform 13 points ahead (32 to 19). While YouGov’s latest poll did see a small drop for Reform versus its previous one (5 points ahead of Labour versus 9), the trendline is clear. More In Common, for instance, saw Reform’s lead over Labour jump by 1 point (11 ahead versus 10 in late August) in its latest September reading.
One would have thought Sir Keir Starmer’s reshuffle helped the government regain some credibility. If so, only YouGov seemed to pick this up. And woe unto to the Tories. In nearly a month, Kemi Badenoch’s party has barely hit 20%. Analysis suggests Reform is doing especially well amongst disgruntled former Tories, notwithstanding a significant number of Red Wall types shifting from Labour.
This makes Nigel Farage especially vulnerable to a reverse in Conservative fortunes. Maximum danger perhaps when Tory rules allow for a challenge to Badenoch’s leadership from November.
The consensus is this danger zone for Reform will last until around the time of the May local, Scottish and Welsh elections, when the Tories are expected to get a drubbing. However, if Badenoch holds on past May the window of opportunity to dethrone her may have passed.
A Robert Jenrick-type leader may not reverse Tory fortunes, but a new leader could hardly do any worse. Ultimately Reform is winning over a substantial number of hacked-off Leave-voting Tories who – having made the leap to Reform – seem increasingly unlikely to go back.
What then of Labour? True, Reform benefits from Sir Keir’s underwhelming leadership and certainly picks up a big number of patriotic Labour voters (note the Runcorn by-election win). But Reform is really winning over the Brexit bloc which gave Boris Johnson his landslide in 2019 (and most of these were ex-Tory voters).
Given widespread disillusionment with the government, Reform could be vulnerable to a 180-degree turnaround in Labour’s efficacy, especially on immigration, crime and the economy. But – economic doom loop and debt bubble aside – do we really believe Sir Keir and co are going to magically get control of the border and lawless London?
Still, if Labour – as some Left-leaning commentators suggest – is wasting its time trying to ape Reform (in rhetoric at least) and trend Blairite on tax and spend, it remains possible the government could win back voters from the Greens, Jeremy Corbyn, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and maybe even the Lib Dems. Shifting further to the Left may hurt the country but it could help the PM.
Reform could therefore be vulnerable to Labour shoring up the Left-wing vote, especially if the government spooks enough Left-wing voters into thinking a vote for Jeremy Corbyn puts Nigel Farage in Number 10. For Reform, these perhaps represent the biggest risks to its seemingly unstoppable rise.
That said, the polls still make for happy reading for Farage. But the Tories see those polls too, and how long will they wait before deciding Badenoch is for the chop? And will Labour not pull out all the stops to bring its Leftist base back into the fold. Until then however, Reform’s ascendancy remains intact.