Bombshell polls have revealed where Reform UK would gain Labour seats across the country at a general election.
More in Common released its first MRP of the new Parliament, which revealed a “dramatic shift in Britain’s electoral dynamics”.
The model estimated that an election on December 28 would have produced a “highly fragmented and unstable” House of Commons, with five parties holding more than 30 seats.
While Labour would still emerge on top, experts said, Sir Keir Starmer’s party would have barely a third of the total number of seats that they won in July, and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.
Reform UK, meanwhile, would have emerged as the third largest party on 72 seats.
Stonehaven predicted in its MRP poll, released on January 3, that Reform UK would win 120 seats.
The pollster said: “For the first time, a combined Conservative-Reform bloc could realistically rival Labour’s seat total, leaving the government’s position far weaker than many expected.”
It added: “While much of the post-election narrative has focused on the threat Reform poses to the Conservatives, our findings reveal that most of the increases in Reform support have come from 2024 Labour voters, not the Tories. Specifically, Labour’s hero voters, who were a key battleground group Labour focused on during the election.”
Experts also specified that of the seats that are more likely to vote Reform now, almost 80% of them are currently Labour seats.
Full list of Reform UK wins from Labour
Below is a list of the seats Reform UK would gain from Labour, and the margin the party would win by, according to the More in Common MRP poll.
| Constituency | Margin |
| Barnsley South | 15.60% |
| Kingston upon Hull East | 15.50% |
| Hartlepool | 15.40% |
| Rotherham | 15.10% |
| Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | 11.10% |
| Barnsley North | 10.70% |
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | 10.00% |
| Heywood and Middleton North | 9.90% |
| Houghton and Sunderland South | 9.00% |
| South Shields | 8.20% |
| Bradford South | 8.00% |
| Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | 8.00% |
| Doncaster Central | 7.20% |
| Makerfield | 7.20% |
| Bolsover | 7.10% |
| Rhondda and Ogmore | 7.10% |
| Normanton and Hemsworth | 6.20% |
| Plymouth Moor View | 6.20% |
| Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | 6.10% |
| Tipton and Wednesbury | 6.10% |
| Thurrock | 5.90% |
| Penistone and Stocksbridge | 5.60% |
| Amber Valley | 5.50% |
| Blackpool South | 4.90% |
| East Thanet | 4.80% |
| Washington and Gateshead South | 4.70% |
| Spen Valley | 4.60% |
| Sunderland Central | 4.60% |
| Rother Valley | 4.50% |
| Bolton North East | 4.20% |
| Easington | 3.70% |
| Burnley | 3.60% |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | 3.10% |
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | 2.90% |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | 2.90% |
| Aberafan Maesteg | 2.80% |
| Ashton-under-Lyne | 2.80% |
| Doncaster North | 2.80% |
| Bassetlaw | 2.70% |
| Lowestoft | 2.70% |
| Bolton South and Walkden | 2.60% |
| Jarrow and Gateshead East | 2.00% |
| North Durham | 2.00% |
| Hyndburn | 1.90% |
| Folkestone and Hythe | 1.70% |
| Leeds South West and Morley | 1.70% |
| Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | 1.70% |
| Blyth and Ashington | 1.60% |
| Dudley | 1.60% |
| Stockton North | 1.50% |
| Erewash | 1.30% |
| Wellingborough and Rushden | 1.30% |
| Weston-super-Mare | 1.30% |
| Dagenham and Rainham | 1.20% |
| Wolverhampton North East | 1.10% |
| Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | 1.00% |
| Halifax | 0.70% |
| Leigh and Atherton | 0.60% |
| Llanelli | 0.60% |
| Mansfield | 0.60% |
| Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | 0.50% |
| Cannock Chase | 0.40% |
| Scunthorpe | 0.40% |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | 0.30% |
| Blackpool North and Fleetwood | 0.20% |
| Rochester and Strood | 0.20% |
| Stalybridge and Hyde | 0.20% |
Full regional data
Stonehaven has released regional data it has gathered as part of its MRP poll.
Below is what the survey found as regards the current voting intentions of voters in different regions of the UK.
The sample size was 2,072, and fieldwork was done between December 6 and 9.
| Region Reported | Conservatives | Labour | Liberal Democrats | Green Party | Reform UK | Scottish National Party | I wouldn’t vote | Other |
| North East England | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| North West England | 9 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| East Midlands | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| East of England | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 5 |
| Greater London | 11 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| South East England | 20 | 9 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
| South West England | 9 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
| Wales | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| Scotland | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 92 | 5 | 8 |
| Northern Ireland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 10 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| West Midlands | 8 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
