Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has been handed a massive win after it was revealed that two-thirds of punters have bet on the party winning the most seats at the next general election.
The vote is due to be held in 2029, but plenty of people already have high expectations and have put their money where their mouths are.
The billionaire Nick Candy defected from backing the Conservatives to Reform UK yesterday.
Since then, Oddschecker says betting interest in the new political party has “surged significantly”.
The betting aggregator says that 67% of bets placed through the platform in the past 24 hours have backed Reform UK to win the most seats at the next general election.
But, since the betting opened on Oddschecker, the company says that 53% of all bets placed have backed Reform, compared to 24% for the Conservatives and 23% for Labour.
According to current odds, Reform UK’s implied probability of winning the most seats has “surged” by more than 3.5 times.
However, bookmakers still expect Keir Starmer to remain in power following the next election, experts say, with odds of 4/6 indicating a 57.5% probability.
In addition, there has been a “notable increase in bets” on Starmer’s exit date, with growing support for him to leave office in 2025.
This has prompted odds to shorten from 3/1 to 11/4. To win a general election, a party needs to achieve an overall majority of 650 seats in the House of Commons.
The Labour Party won 411 of the constituencies in July. Reform UK has five MPs.
Oddschecker spokesperson Leon Blackman said: “Reform UK has already been a dominant force in our political betting markets in recent months, and yesterday’s announcement of Nick Candy’s defection has triggered another wave of market activity. In the past 24 hours alone, 67% of bets placed on the ‘Most Seats’ market has backed Reform UK.
Bookmakers had responded swiftly, cutting the party’s odds from 7/2 to 5/2, marking the shortest price since the market launched in mid-August when Reform UK was available at 12/1. With momentum building, it will be interesting to see how betting markets continue to react to this news in the coming weeks.”
