Reform UK leaflets are already landing on voters’ doorsteps in the Welsh Senedd constituency of Caerphilly, in what could be a seismic election win for Nigel Farage. The by-election was sparked by the unexpected death of Labour AM Hefin David, who was found dead at his home at the age of 47.
Following his funeral earlier this week, the race is now on to replace him in what will be the last Welsh Senedd by-election ahead of next year’s nationwide elections. The seat could now be the start of the political earthquake in Wales, as Reform is leading in many opinion polls and threatens the end to 26 years of continuous Labour rule. According to election polls for the corresponding Caerphilly Westminster constituency, Reform has a handsome lead, suggesting they stand a strong chance of winning the Senedd by-election.
The Electoral Calculus website predicts that, were a general election held tomorrow, the seat would be won by Mr Farage’s insurgent party with 31.1% of the vote, to Labour’s 24.2%.
Plaid Cymru is also competitive in the area, and could be expected to win around 23.1% in the same contest.
Speaking to the Express as the first Reform UK leaflets make their way to voters in the seat, party chairman Dr David Bull said: “Caerphilly has been a Labour safe seat since the inception of devolution, yet we are now in with a shout of winning the seat.
“Reform will be throwing everything at this election as we build towards next May.”
Laura Anne Jones, Reform UK’s only Senedd member at present, added: “Labour have failed Caerphilly for over 25 years now and the polling is clear, we are now in with a real shout of winning this Labour safe seat.
“Labour have broken Wales, Reform will fix it.”
Ms Jones defected from the Tories in July, meaning a victory in Caerphilly would be Reform’s first win in Wales.
This afternoon Plaid Cymru, who will also be hoping to ride the wave of discontent at Labour in the by-election, announced their own candidate for the race.
Lindsay Whittle will be the Welsh nationalists’ flag bearer, saying locals “deserve a passionate local representative in the Senedd”.
After 26 years of Labour, people are increasingly unhappy with how Wales has been run. They see overstretched services, wasted opportunities and little ambition and they’re looking for change.
No polls have been conducted on the next Senedd election since June, during which time Reform’s lead in the national opinion polls has only grown.
All the polls this year have suggested the race is a three-way split between Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.