Electoral Calculus – one of the most accurate forecasters out there – predicts Reform UK is set for an outright Commons majority come the next general election, slated for 2029. True, politics is a marathon, not a sprint – and much can change in 4 years – but Nigel Farage’s party is currently predicted to win 362 MPs on just over 30% of the vote.
By contrast, Labour – which won a whopping 412 seats in 2024 – would drop to 136 seats. Meanwhile, the Tories would fall into fifth place nationally with a mere 22 MPs. On the one hand, Reform’s opinion poll surge shows no sign of reversing. On the other, conditions could change radically. Under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch could be elbowed out. A new Tory leader may well fail to deliver but could they do any worse?
Sir Keir Starmer could also claw back some points as the PM looks to steal a march on Reform. Don’t discount the possibility meanwhile of global conditions turning in Labour’s favour. Voters might be reluctant to change governments during a global war, such as a conflict over Taiwan, a very real possibility in the next few years.
Incumbency advantage helped the Canadian Liberals after the Trump tariffs, just when Canada’s Conservative Party looked set to win. Labour could likewise steal victory from the jaws of defeat. Reform could also fail to deliver at a local level. Its DOGE policy to save money could backfire, undermining the insurgent party’s credibility. More infighting won’t help either.
Still, these risks notwithstanding Reform benefits from the disaster of the current Labour government and the calamity of the previous Conservative one. Right now, Reform’s worst-case scenario seems to be coming first in the next election but needing the Tories as a minority partner to rule in coalition. That still has Farage as PM and the Tories as the support act.
Perhaps Farage’s biggest challenge will be holding together a coalition of Thatcher-sympathising ex-Tories and working-class Red Wallers keen on government getting stuff done. A taste of this contradiction was exposed by the recent pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap. A vote winner on the road to Wigan Pier. Less appealing to the stockbroker belt.
Still, both sides of this coalition are united by disdain for mainstream politics, mass immigration, tolerance for crime, the perceived abuse of human rights laws, and the “woke” agenda. Reform is not so much redefining UK politics as adapting to a new marketplace while occupying a new space beyond traditional ideas of Left and Right.
For now, Reform’s growing base will forgive a lack of detailed policy so long as they like the vibes. But as 2029 draws near, Farage and co need more meat on the bone and a team ready for government. That is why Reform’s future record in local government will be critical. It will be all voters have to judge when it comes to the party’s fitness to govern.
Still, Reform has topped every opinion poll since mid-April, smashed the May 1 elections, and won the Runcorn by-election from Labour. This does feel like an epochal change. To keep the momentum up however requires running a tight ship, ongoing professionalisation, more policy meat on the bones, and the building up of a decent record in local government. But the next election still looks like Reform’s to lose.
