Reform UK has topped a new poll – this time for Sky/YouGov – with Nigel Farage’s party on 25% versus 24 for Labour and 21 for the Conservatives.
The Tories come out worst, with one in five Tory voters from July now backing Reform, as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has seen her favourability fall below that of Farage.
This is perhaps the seminal issue the Reform leader faces. True, the Tories have lost oodles of credibility after 14 years of failure. Who would trust the party now on the thorny issue of immigration, for example?
Yet how much too can be attributed to a new Tory leader who is simply not landing with a sceptical public and failing to set the agenda?
Give Badenoch time perhaps but one question remains: how much longer will the Tories stick with their new leader if these poll ratings persist?
If the Tories do ditch Badenoch, Farage may find his luck changes.
Put simply, Reform cannot bank on Tory and Labour leadership failures. A multitude of good policies, grassroots campaigns and decent wins in local elections are needed.
Tory HQ isn’t going to give Badenoch years to turn this around. Reform UK needs to prepare for this change and guarantee its blockbuster numbers are predicated on more than the failings of the other parties.
Crucially, the next election is unlikely to be held until 2029. That’s plenty of time for Labour or the Tories to turn the tide.
Reform is riding high for now and the latest opinion poll confirms this. But just half a year on from the last election, this is no time to count the party’s chickens.
