Reform UK is on course to win next year’s Welsh Parliament elections, new polling suggests. The survey by More in Common puts Nigel Farage’s party in the lead with 28% ahead of the Senedd elections in May 2026.
Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru is in second place two points behind on 26%. Labour, which has held power in Wales since devolution, is third with 23%.
The Tories take 10%, the Lib Dems 7%, the Greens 4% and other parties and independent candidates are on 2%.
Wales is a key target for the insurgent party and Mr Farage has previously said that the Senedd 2026 election will be his party’s biggest priority that year.
Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan admitted that Reform poses a “very serious” threat.
She told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast: “We think the threat from Reform is a very serious threat.
“I think it is important people recognise that things that we see every day in our lives in Wales may be snatched away from us, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time.”
Ms Morgan admitted “we’ve got a lot of work to do to get voters back” ahead of the crunch elections.
It comes after former Welsh Secretary David Jones last night confirmed he has switched from the Tories to Reform UK in a high-profile defection.
