Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda and Franco Colapinto were all thought to be in the running for a position at Red Bull, but the New Zealander is expected to be given the nod over his rivals.
Red Bull shareholders are meeting on Monday to discuss the second seat, amongst other end-of-season matters, with patience running out for the 34-year-old.
The Mexican driver has consistently reiterated that he would be in place at Red Bull for the 2025 season, as per his contract, but has finished on the podium just four times this season – all of them coming in the first five races of the campaign.
“I’m going to let Checo (Perez) come to his own conclusions; nobody’s forcing him one way or another,” team principal Christian Horner said after another DNF in Qatar last time out. “It’s not a nice situation for him to obviously be in.”
Colapinto’s emergence at Williams had appeared to be the ideal solution, with James Vowles’ side already committing to Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon moving forward, before the Argentine made an impressive start to life on the F1 grid.
With Colapinto’s future unclear, he began picking up points for the team having replaced Logan Sargeant.
But recent expensive crashes in Brazil and Las Vegas, coupled with an expected eight-figure fee for Williams to release their reserve driver, has since put Red Bull off the prospect of hiring an external candidate.
Since Lawson replaced Ricciardo at VCARB, many felt that he was in a straight shoot-out with team-mate Tsunoda for a promotion.
After the 22-year-old stepped in at the United States Grand Prix, Tsunoda has finished higher than Lawson on three occasions, with the Kiwi doing so twice, proving an incredibly difficult decision to make for the Red Bull hierarchy.
Red Bull junior Isack Hadjar, who could win the Formula 2 championship in Abu Dhabi, will likely step up to VCARB as Tsunoda’s teammate.
For Perez, there is no obvious route back to the grid next season and it remains to be seen what terms he will leave Red Bull on. He could become the team’s reserve driver after Hadjar’s promotion, or wait until 2026 when new team General Motors-Cadillac enters the fray.
