No team was quite as disappointing as the Ravens last year.
An 8-9 season — capped by a stunning missed field goal against the Steelers to miss the playoffs — was riddled with bad execution and late-game errors.
The offense never found its rhythm while Lamar Jackson was hampered by a lower-back contusion that kept him off the field for four games.
On the other hand, the Colts were the NFL’s biggest story last fall, but it all amounted to the same.
After springing to an 8-3 mark, a resurgent Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, the Colts dropped seven straight, and they fumbled the bag.
Ravens vs. Colts prediction, best bet
The market gave the Ravens a pass for last season, pricing them at 10/1 odds to win the Super Bowl and +530 to win the AFC.
It wasn’t so forgiving on the Colts’ plight, dishing out 60/1 Super Bowl odds and 30/1 for the conference.
The teams open the season in Indianapolis on Sunday, with the Ravens set as 3.5-point favorites.
For what trends are worth, the Colts are 10-2 Against The Spread (ATS) against the Ravens over the last 20 years. That’s the best mark of any team in the NFL in that span.
This game is bound to become a rock fight with two elite veteran running backs in Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor facing off.
Baltimore will play its first game without John Harbaugh at the helm in 19 years. Jesse Minter settles in with big expectations to improve the offense, along with former Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle.
The Ravens’ predictable play-calling resulted in a No. 16 overall finish in total offense last year.
This is a statement game for Jackson and Co., but there’s just a lot of ifs with a new regime against a stout secondary duo of Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward Jr.
The Colts have the size and versatility to challenge Baltimore’s receivers without needing extra blitzers. Everyone loves to blitz Jackson, and to their own demise. He had a 114.0 passer rating when blitzed last year and was dangerous as a runner when pressure failed.
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Minter is touted as a defensive guru. He watched the Colts trot to 38 points on his Chargers in Week 7 last year. Indianapolis produced .407 EPA per play, and Jones threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns, while Taylor juiced 94 yards and three scores on only 16 carries.
Shane Steichen’s pattern of hot starts followed by flat finishes has him on the short leash this season: he’s 10 games over .500 ATS in September and October and seven games under .500 ATS in November and December.
Jones will need to prove last season was no fluke. I still think the Ravens are overvalued.
THE PLAY: Colts +3.5 (-115, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
