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Raiders vs. Patriots prediction: NFL Week 5 picks, odds

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Last updated: October 11, 2026 1:28 pm
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Published: October 11, 2026
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Contents
  • Betting on the NBA?
  • Why Trust New York Post Betting
Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards for more information.

The Patriots may have finally found their footing.

After an ugly first three weeks, New England went into Buffalo and pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the young NFL season, beating the Bills, 29-26, in a much-needed win.

Most importantly, Drake Maye finally looked like the Drake Maye from a year ago.

The Patriots quarterback threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns while adding 54 yards on the ground in easily his best game of the season.

Maye gets an opportunity to build on that performance in a considerably friendlier environment this Sunday.

Instead of facing Josh Allen on the road, the Patriots return to Gillette Stadium to face a Raiders team that could be set up for a letdown.

Las Vegas gave the undefeated Chiefs everything they could handle last week, leading at halftime before eventually falling late, 30-27, in an emotional divisional game.

That game certainly took a ton out of the Raiders, who now have to turn around and travel across the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Foxborough.


Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins (8) of the Las Vegas Raiders passes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. Getty Images

New England, meanwhile, only had to make the short trip home from Buffalo.

The Patriots also have a defense capable of keeping this from turning into another Raiders shootout. 

New England enters the matchup ranked sixth in total defense and fifth against the pass, allowing fewer than 20 points per game, while also holding Allen and Co. in check last Sunday. 


Betting on the NBA?


This feels like a difficult spot to sustain that pace after throwing everything it had at Kansas City a week ago.

If the version of Maye that showed up in Buffalo is here to stay, asking New England to win by more than a field goal at home doesn’t feel like too much.

The play: Patriots -3.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.

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