Russia President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “large-scale conventional war” with NATO, German intelligence has warned. Spy chiefs in Berlin believe Moscow sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to pursue its goals with military force beyond Ukraine, according to a leaked report.
The worrying details are reportedly from a new assessment by BND – Germany’s equivalent to MI6 – and the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr. German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, and broadcasters WDR and NDR, report that while the assessment says there is no imminent threat to NATO from Russia, Moscow will likely be ready to wage a “large-scale conventional war” by the end of the decade. It warns the three-year war in Ukraine – where Russian forces have sustained heavy losses – has not weakened the Kremlin’s war machine which is producing weapons at a rapid rate.
Moscow’s defence industry, according to the reports, is producing more than it needs to fight in Ukraine and is capable of accelerating this further.
While it seems Russia is not preparing for a major war in the short-term, the leaked report does say Russia could position its forces in such a way to attack a single NATO state to test the alliance’s Article 5.
Article 5 – the cornerstone of NATO security – means an attack on one, is an attack on all.
Mr Putin has already announced plans to increase the size of Russia’s active armed forces to 1.5 million troops by 2026, with mass crucial to the Kremlin’s approach to war.
Earlier this week, the Russian leader appeared to mock the size of the British military, saying: “What is it, 170,000 or 180,000? That’s all the armed forces of the UK.”
The leaked report also discusses the situation facing NATO’s Baltic States which are ex-Soviet Union and closest to Russia’s borders.
It says the threat to the countries can be considered low at this point, with three-quarters of the soldiers and equipment from Russia’s border areas currently in Ukraine.
However, the assessment also reportedly warns that if the conflict in Ukraine does end, these Russian units will be withdrawn.
