Vladimir Putin is giving “detailed” consideration to using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to a former senior British Army officer. Russia’s army has struggled to translate its vast superiority in both manpower and weapons into significant battlefield gains.
A recent analysis by the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that Russia had succeeded in seizing only around 5,000 square kilometres of territory since January 2024. They noted that this amounted to less than one percent of Ukrainian territory and had come at great cost in terms of both lives and equipment. The researchers pointed out that in the Kharkiv region, Russian forces have advanced an average of only 50 metres per day.
This is slower than during the Somme offensive in World War I, where French and British forces advanced an average of 80 metres per day. The lack of a significant breakthrough on the frontlines may tempt Putin to go nuclear, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon warned.
In an op-ed for the Telegraph, the former Colonel and expert on weapons of mass destruction wrote: “The fact that Putin and his gangsters have threatened nuclear attack continuously since the wider war in Ukraine began suggests they are thinking about it in detail.
“As three days have become three years plus, they may think they can finish off Ukraine quickly with tactical nukes and we would not react.” He argued that Trump’s ambivalent attitude towards Nato and European security may have emboldened that belief.
However, the new Franco-British nuclear weapons alliance agreed last week between Downing Street and Paris could yet act as a powerful deterrence.
The deal forces Putin to calculate that a nuclear strike could trigger French retaliation — aimed directly at Russian forces in Ukraine.
A tactical exchange wouldn’t be contained and would destroy the military Putin needs to stay in power. The Russian President must consider whether using tactical nukes is really worth the risk.
“I for one salute President Macron and Sir Keir for this at least: realising that Putin only respects strength and ruthlessly exploits weakness,” the former Colonel concluded.
“The US President may also at last have found his backbone. If he does not lose it, we might just avoid a wider war in Europe and see a just peace for Ukraine.”
