The writing has been on the wall for Wolverhampton for quite some time. After eight seasons in a row in the Premier League, Wolves are destined for relegation. The Old Gold are 17 points behind 16th-place Nottingham Forest with just 10 matches to go.
Wolverhampton would essentially need to run the table to have a chance of staying up, but the odds of that happening are astronomical, so Wolves will have to settle for playing spoiler against their bitter rival from the West Midlands on Friday afternoon.
The upshot is that there is a lot to spoil for Aston Villa. The Villans will check into the Molineux in third place, with six points between them and the pack of teams trying to take their Champions League bid.
Villa is a -112 favorite to get the win on the road on Friday.
Wolverhampton vs. Aston Villa odds, prediction
In addition to playing spoiler against a rival, another factor that should provide some motivation for Wolverhampton is avoiding a dubious history. Wolves have just one win in 28 matches this season, and need to pick up one more to avoid becoming the second team in the history of the Premier League to tally just a single victory in a campaign.
It’s hard to make excuses for a team that has just one win and 10 points through 28 contests, but Wolves have been bitten by some rotten luck. According to UnderStat’s expected goals model, Wolverhampton “should” have closer to 25 points.
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Most of that gap can be attributed to poor finishing, as Wolverhampton has scored just 18 goals despite accruing 25.8 xG. But the real problem here is that Wolves simply lack the scoring talent needed to make their chances count. No player on the roster has more than two goals.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, is at the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to their actual scoring output and their expected goals data. Villa’s 34.1 xPoints are good enough for 10th in the Premier League, but their 51 points put them in third, with a good chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
And as tempting as it is to read into this and peg Villa for negative regression and Wolves for the opposite, that overlooks what really matters in this matchup.
Aston Villa is a much better side than Wolves, and they should be able to handle their business, putting pressure on the likes of Manchester United, Liverpool, and Chelsea this weekend.
We’ll keep it simple with a play on Villa to get all three points on Friday.
The Play: Aston Villa -112 (bet365 Sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
