Reform UK could overtake the Tories in the polls if Nigel Farage returned as leader, according to a leading pollster.
James Johnson of JL Partners said the Brexit Party’s victory in the 2019 European elections showed the “power of Farage”.
He said it was “completely plausible” that Reform UK could now overtake Rishi Sunak’s party in national polls due to the former Ukip leader’s boosted popularity following his I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here and the “weakness” of the Tory vote.
It comes as a new YouGov survey put the insurgent party on a record 15%, just four points behind the Conservatives.
Mr Johnson told the Express: “If you need one example of the power of Farage, then look to the European elections of 2019.
“The Conservatives were on 40%, until Farage launched the Brexit Party.
“After that weekend, the Tory levels of support ended up halving and the party only brought in 9% of the vote come the result.
“It is completely plausible we could now see this at the national level if Farage were to re-enter, given the weakness of the Conservative vote, Farage’s post-jungle popularity, and the anti-politics mood in the country.”
But Mr Johnson, a former Downing Street pollster, added that Richard Tice’s party is unlikely to win many seats due to the first past the post system.
He said: “Of course even if the party did overtake the Tories in vote share, they would struggle to get many seats due to the electoral system.”
The YouGov poll showed Tory support had fallen to 19%, the same as the lowest share recorded by the party in polling by the company during Liz Truss’s brief premiership.
Meanwhile, the survey put Labour 25 points ahead on 44%.
Reacting to the poll, which follows the high-profile defection of Ashfield MP Lee Anderson, Mr Farage said: “Only a four-point gap now between Reform and the Tories. This insurgency is far bigger than Ukip.”
