It’s do or die for the Phillies on Wednesday.
The Braves pushed them to the brink in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card with a 5-3 decision prompted by Austin Riley’s three-run shot in the eighth inning.
Another win in this series would mark first time the Braves prevailed over their NL East rivals in the postseason: the Phillies took the NLDS in both 2022 and 2023 and the 1993 NLCS over Atlanta.
This Phillies’ core has been chasing after a World Series throughout the decade, and another early exit will have its ramifications.
The onus to avoid that comes down to no one more than Bryce Harper, who struck out twice and went hitless Tuesday.
Phillies vs. Braves Game 2 prediction, best bet
Harper, who is a .269 postseason hitter in 58 games, narrowly missed a go-ahead two-run home run against Chris Sale in the sixth inning when the ball just sailed just right of the right-field pole.
He gets the lefty vs. righty matchup advantage against Atlanta’s Tyler Mahle, against whom he has posted a healthy .278/.350/.500 slash line.
Mahle leans on his four-seamer for nearly half of his pitches. He doesn’t throw it with extreme movement or overpowering velocity, averaging 92 mph, but he locates the strike zone with it well.
In the 14 four-seamers that Mahle served to Harper this season, Harper knocked two hits with a home run on eight swings, according to Statcast. Only two were whiffs.
In fact, Mahle wasn’t much of a swing-and-miss pitcher at all, ranking in only the 31 percentile.
That’s all while Harper remained an elite contact hitter, posting a .379 xwOBA, a Statcast metric that measures expected offensive production based on the exit velocity and launch angle of his contact rather than the results.
Harper has stated he loves playing at Truist Park, and his numbers say why.
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The two-time MVP hit .320 there in 27 plate appearances this season, which included a pair of home runs and five multi-base games out of six.
As the clubhouse leader, Harper was adamant about how the Phillies need to “finish the job” this postseason after having been here before.
He’ll have no choice but to deliver on that statement Wednesday.
THE PLAY: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+128, DraftKings)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
