There are plenty of reasons why THE PLAYERS Championship is often referred to as “The Fifth Major.” The purse is massive, the field is loaded with stars, and the course is as demanding as it is iconic. Like the majors, it is typically set up to produce chaos.
That hasn’t really been the case lately.
The last six editions of THE PLAYERS have all been won by heavyweights. Rory McIlroy (2019 and 2025) and Scottie Scheffler (2023 and 2024) each have two titles in that span, while Justin Thomas (2021) and Cam Smith (2022) account for the other two.
Even Webb Simpson’s victory in 2018 was hardly a surprise. The 2012 U.S. Open champion went off at just 25/1 before lifting the trophy.
The last true long shot to win this event was Si Woo Kim, who triumphed in 2017 as a 500/1 outsider.
That said, we did come close to another long shot winning in 2025. J.J. Spaun was a triple-digit price when he took McIlroy to a playoff a year ago, and there were plenty of other roughies in the top 10. Tom Hoge and Lucas Glover finished T3, while Danny Walker and Bud Cauley were just a couple of shots away at T6.
The point is that while we’re likely to see one of the juggernauts lift the trophy on Sunday, we’re just as likely to see some surprising names chasing them down.
And this year’s PLAYERS feels, dare I say, pretty open.
Scheffler is still the runaway favorite, but he’s “all the way” down at +480 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is still absurd, but it’s not as eye-popping as the prices you had to pay on Scheffler over the last 10 months. McIlroy is in his customary spot right behind Scottie, but he’s drifted to 14/1 after withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer last week.
Collin Morikawa (18/1), Si Woo Kim (22/1), and Ludvig Aberg (22/1) round out the top five.
There is a path here for something unexpected to happen. Let’s just hope we get it right.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Hideki Matsuyama (38/1, DraftKings)
We’ll start our card near the top of the board with a player who has enjoyed plenty of success at TPC Sawgrass without actually winning there. Hideki Matsuyama has four top-10 finishes and seven top-25s in his career at this track, and don’t forget he was the first-round leader in 2020 before the tournament was called off due to the pandemic.
Matsuyama wasn’t at his best at Bay Hill last weekend, but his overall form in 2026 has been solid, and his dip at the API was actually a bit of a blessing in disguise as it will allow us to get the Japanese ball-striker at a discount for THE PLAYERS.
Justin Rose (80/1, bet365)
You just have to accept that Justin Rose is a boom-or-bust player at this point in his career. The Englishman has a win, a T37, and three missed cuts in his five starts this season. That’s not that far off his pattern from 2025, when he had three top-3 finishes (including a win and a runner-up at the Masters) to go along with six MC’s in 18 outings.
Rose does seem to save his best for the bigger events, and he’s got a couple of recent top-10s at THE PLAYERS, both of which bode well for us, especially at this price.
Betting on golf?
Tom Hoge (300/1, bet365)
If you’re looking for a lottery ticket this week, Tom Hoge is your man.
Like Rose, he’s just as likely to miss the cut as make it, but the Fargo native does have a habit of popping up on the leaderboard when he does make the weekend. Hoge has missed three cuts in seven starts this year, but he’s also got two top-15 finishes, so the form is perfectly adequate for a 300/1 shot.
And here’s the best part. Hoge’s game seems to really jive with TPC Sawgrass. The 36-year-old has never missed a cut in his seven trips to THE PLAYERS, and he’s got a pair of top-3 finishes in his last three starts.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.