This week’s Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches (formerly known as the Honda Classic) kicks off the PGA Tour’s annual Florida Swing, a grueling stretch of calendar that includes some of the toughest courses on the circuit.
First up is a visit to PGA National, a course known for volatility and producing long-shot winners.
Five of the last 10 winners here posted a final score of 10-under par or worse, and Sungjae Im won the 2020 Honda Classic at 6-under.
Those winning scores may be a thing of the past, though, as the past two winners finished at 17-under and 19-under, respectively.
Oh, and about those last two winners: They were journeymen Joe Highsmith and Austin Eckroat, a pair of triple-digit long shots who had never won on the PGA Tour before their triumph in Palm Beach Gardens.
In fact, five of the last seven iterations of this event featured a maiden-breaking win.
Given the setup of this tournament, it shouldn’t be a surprise that we regularly see long-shot winners.
It’s a tricky track, and the field is pretty light on star power. Course-specialist Shane Lowry and the hot-starting Ryan Gerard are co-favorites, but they’re priced at a lukewarm 17/1 at bet365 Sportsbook.
You don’t have to beat out a murderers’ row to win this trophy, and that opens the door for players like Highsmith or Eckroat to crash the party.
With that in mind, we’ll focus our attention on some big prices and hope that we see another long shot take in the winner’s circle Sunday.
2026 Cognizant Classic picks
Lee Hodges (90/1, bet365)
The return to PGA National will bring back mixed feelings for Lee Hodges.
On one hand, the 30-year-old has some decent history on this track with two top-15 finishes in three starts.
On the other hand, it was this time last year when Hodges fell down a staircase and broke some ribs, forcing him to miss significant playing time.
He tried to gut through the injury as best he could, but was unable to post the necessary results to keep his Tour Card.
We’ll hope that there will be no PTSD for Hodges, because he enters this week in intriguing form. He’s missed the cut in his last two starts, but his two previous outings saw him finish T4 and T6.
The Huntsville, Ala. product posted some strong results the last time he was able to play the Florida Swing, and he’s clearly got the skillset to handle this gnarly course.
Betting on golf?
Billy Horschel (96/1, DraftKings)
It hasn’t been the most encouraging start to 2026 for Billy Horschel, but we’ll bank on things turning around with the former Florida Gator back on home soil this week.
Horschel has much experience at PGA National as any player in this field, and it’s been a happy hunting ground for the Brevard County native. He has three top-10 finishes in that span, and has only missed the cut once, back in 2018.
Things check out under the hood, as Horschel’s strokes gained numbers at this venue put him near the top of the field.
The current form is not pretty, but it’s allowing us to get Horschel at a discount in a tournament that projects to be wide open.
Sam Ryder (120/1, bet365)
We’ll finish our card with one of the only players in this field who has played this course multiple times without missing a cut.
Sam Ryder, a native of Winter Park, Fla., has two top-10 finishes in five trips to PGA National, and his strokes gained data is right up there with Horschel’s.
It’s been a quiet start to the year for Ryder, but he’s made the cut in both events he’s played so far and he did post a top-30 finish at the American Express.
Not much to write home about, but the course history and familiarity with the conditions make him a worthy gamble at this hefty price.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.