Padres begin 2026 MLB Opening Day vs. Tigers

In what’s arguably the most stereotypical sibling relationship in professional baseball — and maybe all of sports — the Padres play the role of little brother extremely well. They’re always chasing the bigger, better, stronger — and back-to-back defending champion — older brother 124 miles to the north in the Dodgers.

The Padres have become one of the most lovable teams in professional sports, choosing to stay in San Diego and take pride in an incredible atmosphere at Petco Park. They’ve spent money building a championship-contending roster, yet for some reason, they’ve yet to break through to the game’s biggest stage.

They’ve made the postseason in four of the past six seasons but have been eliminated by their rival in the NLDS in 2020 and 2024 — two years the Dodgers won the World Series. They found success in 2022 when they eliminated the Mets and Dodgers, but Bryce Harper’s eighth inning homerun in Game 5 of the NLCS still stings to this day as San Diego ran out of pitching and fell 4-1.

Last year, the Padres fell 2-1 in the Wild Card Round to the Cubs.

So what happens this year?

With a first-time manager in Craig Stammen — who’d only been in the coaching ranks less than two years before being hired — does San Diego finally break through in 2026? Or does disappointment reign supreme and the Friar Faithful is left heartborken… again?

Most Important Hitter: Fernando Tatis Jr.

There are multiple players who can fit into this role for the Padres, which isn’t ideal, but the logic is that the players hitting in the middle of the lineup won’t matter if there’s no one on base for them. Enter Tatis Jr. He only hit .268 last season but had a team-leading .368 on-base percentage — numbers that must be higher this year. His ability to put pressure on opposing defenses — team-high 32 steals — will infuse energy into the rest of the lineup, something this team desperately needs. Simply put, the Padres will go as far as Tati takes them.

Most Important Pitcher: Michael King

By far the biggest concern with the Padres is the pitching. Can Nick Pivetta replicate last year’s breakout season? When will Joe Musrgive return from Tommy John surgery, and what will he look like? Will Randy Vasquez ever be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation starter? What will Walker Buehler look like? All of that makes Michael King’s emergence as the team’s ace that much more important. He flashed greatness in his first season with the team (13-9, 2.95 ERA in 2024), but injuries limited him last season. The bullpen will be elite again, but the Padres need an ace and King has to answer the call.

Who Will Have a Bigger Year Than Expected: Jackson Merrill

As a rookie in 2024, Merrill Jr. became a star with Padres and their fanbase when he hit .296 with 24 homeruns in 156 games. However, injuries derailed last season as he became more pull-heavy, which led to a .264 average in just 115 games. But he came on strong at the end of last year and looks good in spring training. That sets the stage for a redemption season as he’s expected to protect either Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado in the lineup.

Who Is Most Likely to Disappoint: Nick Castellanos

Conventional wisdom would say someone in the bullpen after losing Robert Suarez, but Mason Miller might be the best closer in the game. That leads us back to the offense and free agent signee Nick Castellanos. Once one of the most feared hitters in the game, Castellanos flamed out with the Phillies and they were begging for anyone to take him. The Padres took a flier on him, much at the behest of Machado. If Castellanos is good, it’s a game-changer. But there’s no real reason to expect that.

Key Call Up: Bradgley Rodriguez

With more questions on offense, Tirso Ornelas could be big for the Padres — but it’s more likely the Padres address that issue via trade at the deadline. While the bullpen looks dominant with Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan behind Miller, that’s where the depth ends. Rodriguez impressed in limited big league action last year and could provide a huge spark and added depth to keep this group fresh heading into the postseason.

Biggest Managerial Decision

It’s not so much a singular decision that will define Stammen’s season, but more about how he handles a veteran roster as a first-time manager. He was a part of the Padres locker room four years ago and played alongside the core of this current roster. How does he command the respect of the locker room? How does he make the tough decisions despite personal relationships with the players? How he handles the vibe check with the Padres will ultimate decide his success.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

… Tatis Jr re-enters the MVP conversation and the Padres push the Dodgers to the brink in the NL West. Tatis came on strong to end last year and was great for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, both of which are strong indications that he surges in 2026. And if Tatis Jr. can be that good, San Diego could challenge its older brother for their first NL West crown in 20 years.

Sure To Make Fans Grumble

The drama in the front office. Ever since Peter Seidler passed away in 2023 and his family took over control of the organization, the most fight the organization has shown has been with laweyrs in the court system — and the resolution looks nowhere close. How much of this drama hangs over the organization and those in the clubhouse, and does it affect the way San Diego approaches the trade deadline.

How Their Season Will End 

There’s always one team in each league that shocks, but this year won’t be the Padres. If healthy and the stars return to star status — and Musgrove and Castellanos provide legitimate sparks — the Padres have enough talent to win it all. But the primary problem that has plagued this franchise — execution on offense in the playoffs — will rear its ugly head again. San Diego will will win a round or two in the postseason but fall short of their ultimate goal.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters