A massive total is on the board for this weekend’s NFC North showdown between the Packers and Lions, with Green Bay coming into Detroit as a three-point underdog.
It’s an interesting matchup for both of these teams.
The Lions’ defense has been mostly a disaster this season, while the Packers are sneakily solid on that side of the field.
They’re both rated pretty much even in terms of DVOA, coming in at No. 17 in DVOA (No. 11 on offense, No. 25 on defense), while the Packers are No. 18 (No. 23 on offense and No. 4 on defense).
So no, Micah Parsons is not active, but that really isn’t stopping them.
Had Josh Jacobs not returned for the Packers, I’d be all in on the Over, and likely would have had some bets targeting the Over on both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden’s receiving yards.
I’m still bullish on them overall, but Jacobs’ return allows Green Bay the option to run the ball much more.
Detroit is 23rd in the NFL in defensive DVOA and 25th against the pass.
I think the Lions will have a tough time against this defense and it could easily be a slow day for Amon Ra-St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
I’ll target Josh Jacobs’ rush attempts because I’m actually bullish on the Packers to win this road game.
Betting on the NFL?
My model projects a 23.71-24.21 score in favor of the Lions, giving us legitimate value on Green Bay +3 and the Under, which is, of course, a correlated outcome.
Same-game parlay those all day long, and if the Packers win, Jacobs will get a ton of running attempts.
PREDICTION: Same-Game parlay (+272, DraftKings): Packers +3 + Under 53.5 total points | Josh Jacobs Over 12.5 rushing attempts (-130, BetRivers) | 22+ attempts (+1200, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
