The 2026 home run chase is being priced as a two-horse race. Again.
Aaron Judge is the favorite at +350, but you’re essentially splitting hairs between No. 99 and Shohei Ohtani (+400).
There are a couple of other players at short numbers. Kyle Schwarber is the third choice at +800, and defending champ Cal Raleigh is +900, but most people who bet this market will pick between one of the two Goliaths here and move on.
Where is the fun (and value) in that?
While it will take something special to outpace Judge, Ohtani, and the Big Dumper in this race, there are a few long shots who could give the favorites a run for their money.
Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels (80/1, DraftKings)
Once considered one of the top prospects in baseball, it’s been a slow burn for Adell in Anaheim. But the former No. 10 overall pick broke out in 2025 with 37 home runs, and the numbers suggest there is more to come.
According to Baseball Savant, Adell ranked in the 96th percentile in barrel rate, the 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage, and the 99th percentile in bat speed in 2025.
If the 26-year-old can find a way to make more contact, he has a chance to threaten the 50-homer mark in 2026.
Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies (150/1, DraftKings)
A relative unknown thanks to his employer, Goodman’s profile is not that different from Raleigh’s before last season. He’s a catcher who broke out with a career-high 31 home runs in 2025, which was his first full season.
Goodman’s batted-ball data isn’t as prolific as Adell’s, but he’s just coming into his own as a Major Leaguer; there’s plenty of upside here. Plus, it’s never a bad idea to bet power-happy Rockies in this market.
Betting on Baseball?
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs (200/1, Fanatics)
This could be the year where Suzuki does his star turn.
The Japanese import went deep a career-high 31 times last season, but his under-the-hood numbers are even more encouraging. Only seven players barreled up the ball more than Suzuki did in 2025.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.