The way the college football season is supposed to work is that we expect to learn more about a team with every passing week.
For Oregon and USC, the opposite has been true.
No. 12 USC is undefeated through four games, but somehow they’ve been one of the most underwhelming teams in the country. They barely beat Rutgers, gave up 56 combined points to Louisiana and San Jose State, but also crushed Fresno State, 51-0, in between those games.
No. 20 Oregon is even more confusing. The Ducks, who were one of the favorites to win the national championship, escaped against Boise State in Week 1, lost to Oklahoma State in Week 2, and then scored 84 points against Portland State the following Saturday.
Maybe both of these Big Ten contenders will sort it out. Maybe they won’t. All we can be sure of is that one of them will be in big trouble with a loss on Saturday.
The Ducks are a 3.5-point favorite at the Coliseum in Week 4.
Oregon vs. USC odds, prediction
It’s hard to be certain of anything with these teams, but the one part of the equation that seems reliable is that USC’s defense is bad and the offense is quite good.
SP+ makes the Trojans the No. 1 offensive team in the country entering Week 4, and their 7.1 yards per play is the 11th-best mark in FBS. Give Lincoln Riley a dynamic quarterback, and he will give you plenty of points.
The problem is that Riley’s defense couldn’t stop Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights put up 35 points, 460 total yards, and averaged 6.7 yards per play against USC. That’s the same Rutgers team that lost by 16 to UMass at home, by the way.
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Being able to outpace Rutgers, Louisiana, and San Jose State in back-and-forth affairs is one thing, but USC is in for a long night if it is going to try and do the same against Oregon.
The Ducks have looked out of sorts at times, but Dan Lanning’s bunch deserve the benefit of the doubt. They should be able to get their house in order, especially defensively, in time to salvage this season.
As for USC, this is probably who they are. They’re going to show up and hope that Jayden Maiava and the offense can outscore their defensive warts.
Against most teams, USC will be able to do it. But I’ll bet that Oregon isn’t most teams.
The Play: Oregon -3.5 (+100, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
