Turkey and Paraguay will have their backs against the wall on Friday evening.
Both sides were deserving losers in their opening matches, as they fell into two very different traps against their opponents.
Paraguay wasn’t prepared for the speed at which the United States attacked, which made it nearly impossible to play their physical brand of soccer. Turkey couldn’t solve Australia’s defensive shape, and was vulnerable in transition.
That has put both of these teams in must-not-lose territory for their match at Levi’s Stadium.
World Cup: Turkey vs. Paraguay odds, predictions
These two teams have very different strengths.
Turkey has a pair of magicians up front. Arda Guler is quickly becoming one of the world’s best attacking players, and he’s got an outstanding runningmate in Kenan Yildiz. While Guler is known for his ability to distribute and score from anywhere, Yildiz is a maniac with the ball at his feet. They’re a great battery.
The problem is that Turkey is quite reliant on their two talismans. If you can find a way to contain Guler and Yildiz, the Crescent-Stars can look uninspired. Australia may have conceded 30 shots towards target, but the majority of them were of the Hail Mary variety.
Australia, meanwhile, looked like a real threat anytime they got on the ball. Turkey really struggled to slow them down in transition, and Nestory Irankunda gave the Crescent-Stars fits all night.
On paper, Paraguay’s strength should be its physicality and defense. La Albirroja didn’t show that against the United States, but not many teams would have been able to cope with the Americans that night. The Yanks were on the front foot from the jump, and caught Paraguay off guard in one of the best performances at the tournament so far.
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Paraguay should have an easier time against Turkey, which doesn’t have the variety of attacking options that the Americans boast.
Like Australia, Paraguay should be able to sit deep and load the box, forcing Turkey to attempt long-range efforts. If they can frustrate the Crescent-Stars, they should be able to punish them in transition through their own talisman, Julio Enciso.
You won’t find many folks eager to back either of these sides after their performances last week, but one of them is getting too much respect.
Paraguay is live to pull the upset and essentially put Turkey’s World Cup in real peril.
The Play: Paraguay moneyline (+300, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.