Senegal and Iraq are playing for nothing more than hope on Friday.
Both tied with a goose egg in Group I standings, a win could give them a shot to be one of the eight third-place teams to advance to the knockout stages. A loss or draw would effectively eliminate them from the World Cup.
The difference is that even with a win, Iraq would need a very specific sequence of events to take place. Senegal’s requirements aren’t as complicated.
It’s more of a surprise that Les Lions de la Teranga have found themselves in this position rather than Usood al-Rafidayn, but both had to contend with Golden Boot frontrunners Kylian Mbappé (France) and Erling Haaland (Norway).
France pinned Iraq deep and forced them into errors while the Norwegians fed Haaland in central areas to exploit the same structural weak points.
With the Senegalese, there was at least a fighting chance. France absorbed some early pressure before overtaking the match after halftime, and Norway just had answers at every turn.
Senegal’s goal differential is three goals worse than Iraq’s, even though both sport FotMob ratings in the bottom six of the 48-team field.
Now up against one another, books are rightfully valuing Senegal, which still owns a 52.4 percent possession share, as -180 favorites on the three-way moneyline. Iraq is as long as 12/1 ‘dogs.
Talent is not the problem for this Les Lions de la Teranga roster. Dealing with the French and Norwegians or not, they have grossly underachieved with the globally respected likes of Sadio Mane, Kalidou Koulibaly, Ismaila Sarr, and Nicolas Jackson on the pitch.
This comes down to motivation for Senegal.
They will own possession in this match and routinely stretch Iraq through wide attacks led by Mane and Sarr. Iraq will sit deep in a compact defensive block, relying on counterattacks sparked by Zidane Iqbal and finishing chances from Ali Al-Hamadi.
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Iraq’s willingness to play out from the back has also cost them, leading to two goals conceded after giveaways inside their own penalty area (one to Haaland and another to Mbappé). I can’t see them going back to the drawing board for the final match.
Senegal has a lot to prove, and after playing admirable football against the likes of France and Norway, the shackles are coming off.
THE PLAY: Senegal Over 2.5 goals (-104, FanDuel)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
