It took a while for the Men’s Australian Open to really get going, but when it did, it was pure theater.
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both put together thrilling five-set victories in the semifinals, setting up a tantalizing final between the current World No. 1 and the record-holder for most Grand Slam titles.
Alcaraz, searching for his first Australian Open trophy and seventh Grand Slam overall, is a -334 favorite over Djokovic, who is looking to win his 11th Australian Open and his 25th major.
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic odds, prediction
Alcaraz has been the best player in the tournament to date, winning 15 straight sets before taking down Alexander Zverev in a five-set marathon in the semifinals.
Djokovic has had a weird path to the final.
He made quick work of his early-round opponents, was handed a walkover when Jakub Mensik pulled out before their fourth-round match, and then was gifted a huge break when Lorenzo Musetti had to retire from their showdown in the quarterfinals.
The Italian had Djokovic on the ropes after winning his first two sets.
As lucky as the Serb was in the quarterfinals, he earned every bit of his victory over tournament-favorite Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. Djokovic lost the first set and was down, 2-1, entering the fourth, before clawing his way over the finish line.
It was a sign that Djokovic, who had lost five matches in a row to Sinner entering that match, still has the level to compete with the world’s two best players.
He also seemed to have his legs, clearly aided by the lack of time spent on court thanks to the quick early-round matches and the walkovers.
As impressive as Djokovic was against Sinner, he may need to step things up against Alcaraz.
The Spaniard won 17 straight sets before Zverev won back-to-back tiebreakers to send the semifinals to a fifth set, but the World No. 1 was able to dig it out, breaking the German’s serve with the tournament on the line.
If you’re an Alcaraz fan or have a ticket on him to win the tournament, you may have wished he got through that match in three sets to save his legs, but on the other hand, it could prove beneficial that the six-time Grand Slam champion dealt with some adversity before the final.
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At this stage of their careers, Alcaraz has a significant advantage in terms of weaponry.
If he’s on song, he can dictate this match and be rid of Djokovic in a hurry. But if he’s even a little bit off, Djokovic will be able to squeeze his way into this tilt. Nobody can exploit a crack in the armor better than Djokovic.
This match isn’t a coin flip. Alcaraz is the better player and a deserving favorite.
That said, Djokovic’s skillset is tailor-made to hang around in a match like this. He should be able to ask plenty of questions of Alcaraz, but in the end, the World No. 1 should have just enough answers.
The Play: Carlos Alcaraz to win in five sets (+400, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.