The Nuggets and Timberwolves will meet in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup out west in the first round of the NBA playoffs. It should be one of the most exciting first-round series with two elite All-Stars in Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards going head-to-head.
Edwards has been in eight playoff series in his career, and two of them have been against the Nuggets. The Wolves lost the first of those series in 2023, then stunningly knocked off the Nuggets the following season in a Game 7 in Denver.
The Wolves have also made the Western Conference finals in back-to-back seasons, but you wouldn’t know it from the series odds.
DraftKings has the Nuggets listed as -350 favorites to win the series, which translates to a 74 percent implied probability.
However, the series spread odds at Nuggets -1.5 (-155) and the total games prop at 5.5 (-135) both suggest this series will go long.
I think that’s a fair expectation given the full-season performance of both teams. The Nuggets finished top three in the West thanks to Jokic’s brilliance.
The perennial MVP candidate has arguably been the best version of himself on offense this season, leading the league in rebounds (12.9) and assists (10.7) while averaging 27.7 points.
But that’s just one end of the floor.
Defensively, the Nuggets have been near the bottom of the league all season, and while they have players who can defend well, it hasn’t come together as a unit yet.
The Wolves have the opposite issue.
Defensively, they are one of the best teams in the league, but their offense can be too reliant on Edwards’ scoring prowess.
When Edwards is off the floor, the Wolves’ Offensive Rating dips by 5.9 points.
Barring injury, Edwards will be on the floor for heavy minutes, and Minnesota has done a good job of bolstering its bench to fill in gaps that have bedeviled them in the past.
Ayo Dosunmu is a great combo guard and two-way player next to Edwards, and with Kyle Anderson’s return, gives them a forward with size who can also be a secondary playmaker in spots.
Betting on the NBA?
Minnesota has been frustratingly inconsistent all season, but so have the Nuggets, and bad injury luck doesn’t wipe away all those concerns.
I don’t expect the Wolves to win this series against a Nuggets team with the scariest offense in the league, but I do expect them to punch above their weight and make this a dogfight until the end.
The Pick: Series total games Over 5.5 (-135, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
