Economists have “demolished” the idea that high levels of migration is “some kind of big economic benefit”, a Tory MP has declared.
The Office for Budget Responsibility upgraded its forecast for net migration to an average of 350,000 – up from 290,000.
And the impact the additional people can have on infrastructure such as roads, GP surgeries and schools means it can lower the economic benefit migration can bring.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said: “Having reached a record high of 745,000 in 2022, net migration stood at 670,000 in the year to mid-2023, around 70,000 higher than assumed in our November forecast.
“Supported by the policy measures announced since our last forecast, our central forecast assumes annual net migration falls back to 315,000 in the medium term, up from 245,000 in our November forecast.”
The OBR added: “This means we now expect net migration to average around 350,000 a year over the forecast period, up from 290,000 in our November forecast. Cumulatively, this adds a further 350,000 people (around 300,000 adults) to the UK population over the next five years.”
Conservative MP Neil O’Brien told the Daily Express: “Migration has been much too high over recent years, and we need to get it down. The most recent report from the O.B.R. further demolishes the idea that migration is some kind of big economic benefit.
“One of the big things that affects how well off we are is the capital stock: how much machinery and equipment we have; along with infrastructure like roads, railways, GP surgeries houses and so on.
“Because migrants can’t bring infrastructure with them, more migration means sharing out our infrastructure and capital between more people, which tends to lower economic performance and living standards.”
Alp Mehmet, Chairman of Migration Watch UK, commented: “The Chancellor expects net migration to fall to 350k p.a. Even at this level, the projected population increase by 2046 is nine million people.
“This will mean massive added pressure on services and housing. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer said the government had immigration to thank for any growth in the economy, which he said had not grown since the first quarter of 2022 omitting to point out that we’ve had the highest immigration levels ever in that time with net migration of 745k in 2022.
“Neither party is being honest about the scale of immigration and its damaging impact on our economy and society.”
The OBR also said that the longer migrants stay in the UK, the less they boost the economy.
The OBR added: “Our migration scenarios also demonstrate that while higher net migration has been a key driver of GDP growth in recent years, under plausible assumptions, it may not have a substantial impact on output per person.”
“The overall long-term impact of migration on the public finances is more uncertain. The fiscal impacts of migration are likely to become less beneficial over time, reflecting that after a minimum of 5-years, migrants can apply for indefinite leave to remain and therefore become eligible for welfare benefits.
“If migrants stay in the UK into older age, there would also be greater pressures on pensions and health spending and lower tax revenues as they retire.”
