It’s still not hugely likely, but this week the UK government warned everyone in the country to prepare for the possibility of war in Britain.
Ministers are pushing for more planning for potential conflict at home in the coming years, at a time when the war in the Middle East between Israel, Hamas in Palestine, Iran and the US is escalating, and Vladimir Putin’s push to take parts of Ukraine for Russia continues to rumble on.
Ministers are stepping up calls for the whole of society to become more resilient and plan to carry out a cross-government exercise of how to deal with crises later this year.
Much like pandemic planning, every major western government does have contingencies in place for dealing with nuclear strikes on a major city, with the UK being no exception to this.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, many analysts feared it could be the first major milestone in the path to WW3 – war on European soil once more.
But while it remains unlikely, if push came to shove and Russia or indeed Iran did levy a nuclear warhead against the UK, how bad would the damage be?
One website, NuclearSecrecy.com, has a tool called Nuke Map, which shows estimates of the damage which would be dealt by various nuclear weapons. This was set up by Alex Wellerstein, a science and nuclear weapons professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology.
One option is the Topol SS-25, an 800 kiloton nuke currently in Russia’s arsenal.
It shows that, if it was dropped right on Westminster in Central London, the damage would be predictably catastrophic.
A 2.97KM2 area of central London would be wiped away. The Nuke Map states: “Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to damage on the ground depends on the height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Anything inside the fireball is effectively vaporised.”
This includes parts of Westminster, as well as St James’s Palace and the London Eye.
The next zone is the ‘moderate blast damage radius’. An area of 134Km2, this would collapse buildings and start fires. The map states: “At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. The chances of a fire starting in commercial and residential damage are high, and buildings so damaged are at high risk of spreading fire. Often used as a benchmark for moderate damage in cities.”
This includes Camden, Kensington, Brixton as well as Shoreditch, St Pancras, Clapham and Chelsea as well as Clapham Junction, Paddington and Battersea.
The third zone, further from the point of impact, is 384km2, and includes Chiswick, Streatham, Tooting, Stratford, Hampstead, Lewisham, Greenwich and Sydenham as well as Fulham and Walthamstow.
The nuke map says this zone would also have a rough time of it: “Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation.”
Finally, the last zone around the edge of London would be the light blast damage radius. This includes Wembley, Edgware, Hounslow, Barking, Chipping Barnet, Croydon, Sutton, Woolwhich and Enfield.
It is said about this area: “At around 1psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who come to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a benchmark for light damage in cities.”
The UK government stresses that its nuclear deterrent would avoid such a catastrophe.
It says via gov.uk: “The UK’s independent nuclear deterrent has existed for over 60 years to deter the most extreme threats to our national security and way of life, helping to guarantee our safety, and that of our NATO allies.
“The risk of nuclear conflict remains remote, but the threats the UK faces are increasing in scale, diversity and complexity. That is why we must be able to deter the most extreme acts of aggression against us and our NATO allies.
“The UK has taken a consistent and leading approach on nuclear disarmament but not all states have followed. Some are significantly increasing and diversifying their nuclear capabilities. We must ensure they can never use their nuclear weapons to threaten us, constrain our decision making, or sponsor nuclear terrorism.
“It may sometimes feel that these threats are far removed from our daily lives, but the UK must have the capability to protect itself and our NATO allies. Deterrence plays a key role in keeping the public safe, and to abandon our nuclear deterrent would put us all at greater risk.
“Since April 1969, the Royal Navy has maintained continuous at sea deterrence, with at least one nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine patrolling the seas undetected at all times, ready to respond to the most extreme threats to the UK. Their fundamental purpose is to preserve peace, prevent coercion, and deter aggression.
“This continuous at sea deterrent (CASD) is the most capable, resilient, and cost-effective platform on which to deploy our independent nuclear deterrent.”