Dominic Cummings has claimed Sir Keir Starmer will be ousted as Prime Minister next year, warning of “a nightmare” ahead for both Labour and the Conservatives. Speaking at an event in London on Wednesday night, the former Downing Street strategist said the public were “disgusted” with politics as he issued his stark prediction.
The event was hosted by the pressure group ‘Looking for Growth’ (LFG), who recently made headlines after its members cleaned graffiti from London Underground stations. Mr Cummings, who masterminded the Vote Leave campaign and later served as Boris Johnson’s chief adviser, said Britain was heading for political upheaval.
“I suspect that [the election] won’t be earlier [than 2029], just because the MP’s will pump off the nightmare that’s coming for many of them,” he told the audience.
“I think Labour will keep losing votes to the Greens and everybody apart from the Tories,” he added.
Mr Cummings said both Labour and the Conservatives were failing to understand the level of public anger and warned that voters would not tolerate “politics as usual”.
“I suspect the PM, Starmer, will be got rid of next year,” he said.
“Obviously Kemi will be got rid of after the May elections.”
He said the public mood was one of deep frustration, adding: “The country has never been so disgusted with politicians, and so much desiring of genuine change.”
Mr Cummings said the next few years would be defined by whether a new movement could capture that mood and offer a serious alternative to the established parties.
“The big question is, what political force can mobilise this energy?” he said.
“Who can actually build on that and turn it into a political movement for the election?”
Pressed on who might emerge as that force, Mr Cummings said “Farage has a huge opportunity to do this”, but warned that the Reform leader would have to build a credible operation if he wanted to challenge for power.
He said Mr Farage would need to “set out a recruitment process” to decide who would form his core team and “go through that process in the next few months”, which would “put him in the driving seat”.
“If you build a great team, that is what the country is looking for,” Mr Cummings added.
But he also spoke about whether Mr Farage could handle the demands of leadership.
“The big doubt about Farage is […] he’s a one man bag with a fag packet and an iPhone, can he be a team builder and control Number Ten,” he said.
“If he goes down that path it will hugely improve his chance of winning.”
The comments are likely to alarm Labour and the Conservatives alike, coming just weeks before the Chancellor’s Budget and months before the May local elections, which are expected to be a key test for both Kemi Badenoch and Keir Starmer.
Mr Cummings’ intervention marks one of his sharpest attacks yet on the current political class since leaving Government in 2020. Once one of Westminster’s most powerful behind-the-scenes figures, he has since used his blog and public appearances to push for radical reform of government and the civil service.
His prediction that both main leaders will be “got rid of” next year will fuel speculation over Labour’s internal divisions and the Conservatives’ ongoing struggles to recover in the polls. For Sir Keir, the warning that Labour could start losing votes to the Greens will add pressure as his Government battles to keep inflation down and manage disputes over Europe and immigration.
Kemi Badenoch’s team declined to comment. Sir Keir Starmer was approached for comment.