Kemi Badenoch ruled out a Tory-Reform merger this week, with the Conservative leader ostensibly clashing with former Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, who mooted the idea.
For Badenoch, Nigel Farage’s apparent desire to destroy her party is reason enough to dismiss such an idea.
Yet the under-pressure Tory leader may well find she has little choice but to consider such a move given her party is now trailing Reform UK according to some polls.
The fact remains however that Reform – while stealing a march on the Tories – has increasingly less incentive to do any deal given that in the “vibes” era authenticity matters, and Reform’s authority could be shot by any deal with the beleaguered blues. It’s this authenticity that could prove to be Farage’s not-so-secret weapon.
However, Reform’s 25% would not guarantee the largest number of seats in Parliament. That would necessitate climbing nearer 28% (and around 31% for an outright majority).
That could mean Reform has some incentive at least to cut a deal, with both Farage and his Conservative counterpart looking pragmatically at any route to bring down this Labour government.
As things stand however, the Tories are the losers, with their poll numbers dropping and voters unforgiving of 14 years of failure.
Much now depends on this year’s local elections which will give an indication of how credible a threat Reform is. It is also worth bearing in mind that Reform threatens Labour as well, especially in the north, which could further incentivise a deal with the Conservatives.
Clearly there is little love lost between Badenoch and Farage – as evidenced by a recent spat over Reform’s membership numbers overtaking the Tories – but would both risk allowing Sir Keir another five years in power.
Who knows? Frankly the next general election is so far in the future – around four and a half years – that this question is academic. Still, whatever Badenoch says, her party knows Reform is not merely parking its tanks on Tory lawns but opening up a three party system in Britain.
Kemi Badenoch needs more than a little luck if she is to offset the threat from Farage.
