Nigel Farage has been tipped to steal voters in Scotland who want to “rebel” against the establishment in a threat to the SNP’s independence dream.
Prominent nationalist, Robin McAlpine, has warned fellow nats that Scots are turning from the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) to Mr Farage’s Reform UK.
The former director of pro-independence think tank Common Weal also said Reform’s rise north of the border could result in the Scottish Greens being booted out of Holyrood.
Mr McAlpine explained Scotland’s regional voting system had benefited the Greens but it could backfire on them at the next Scottish Parliament election on May 7, 2026.
Reform could become the fourth largest party in Scotland at the next election, according to voter intention polling.
Mr Farage’s insurgent party came fifth in Scotland at the General Election in July, ahead of the Scottish Greens.
The latest Westminster voting intention polling average of Scottish opinion polls calculated by Electoral Calculus puts Reform on 11.7% and the Scottish Greens on 3.1%.
This compares to averages of 30.7% for the SNP, 29% for Scottish Labour, 14.1% for the Scottish Conservatives and 8% for the Scottish Lib Dems.
Mr McAlpine, writing in the pro-independence publication, The National, said: “Not only is the rise of Reform going to be a big shock to Scottish politics, it will have electoral consequences people don’t expect.”
He explained there will be “enormous pressure for list seats in 2026” and if the four main parties “fight over the majority of them, there might only be one seat left per list for smaller parties”.
In comments quoted by the Scottish Daily Express, the nationalist added: “If Reform ended up one point ahead of the Greens in every list, it is conceivable the Greens could be wiped out. That removes the chance of any pro-independence majority and all but hobbles the SNP for five years.”
His analysis comes as Reform’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice suggested his party would help to put Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, in power at the 2026 vote.
The position of First Minister looks likely to be a battle between the SNP and Scottish Labour, with Reform boasting it could be “kingmaker” should it perform well in Scotland.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Mr Tice claimed Scotland has suffered under the SNP and it was time for a change.
He said: “Our ambition is we see it being quite possible that we end up being the kingmakers in the next Holyrood government. And from a standing start, give or take at the beginning of this year in Scottish terms, that is a pretty significant and quite achievable observation.
“It’s quite possible that we poll as the third largest party in terms of the number of votes and seats.”
