Reform UK would win the most seats if a general election was held tomorrow, according to a new mega poll. The survey of more than 16,000 people suggests that Nigel Farage’s insurgent party is on course to secure 180 MPs.
The Conservatives and Labour are predicted to be tied on 165 each, with no party close to an overall majority. It would be a loss of 246 seats for Sir Keir Starmer’s party with 10 Cabinet ministers ousted including Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, while the Tories would gain 44.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, which carried out the research, said: “We are a long way from a general election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that as of today British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level.
“The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s Government has splintered right and left.
“Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this Parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in Parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago.
“Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to Government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome.
“Labour, meanwhile, having secured a historic victory now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the Government’s early missteps.
“Not only would an election tomorrow see the gains of 2024 largely reversed, but the party is also suffering historic losses in heartlands such as the Welsh Valleys, Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire, with ten cabinet ministers losing their seats.
“The Conservatives meanwhile may breathe a sigh of relief they haven’t been entirely wiped out, but despite Labour’s unpopularity their seat total would only return to 1997 levels and they would suffer further losses to Reform UK, while winning back few of their Liberal Democrat losses in the home counties.”
The Lib Dems would win 67 seats, while the SNP would take 35, independents 10, Plaid Cymru five and the Greens on four.
Mr Tryl added: “But the truth is the nature of a splintered electorate more than anything means elections for the next few years will be highly unpredictable with candidates winning on small shares of the vote and knife edge results.
“The test for all three main parties will be which one can prove to the electorate that they can really deliver the change the public so desperately wants to see.”
The poll of 16,176 people was carried out from March 14 to April 1.
