Nigel Farage is “peaking too soon” to become the next prime minister, Lord Mandelson has said. Britain’s new ambassador to the United States described the Reform UK leader as a “highly effective populist” but insisted voters would be choosing a government, not “having a fling”, at the next general election.
Lord Mandelson was speaking to The Sunday Times a year after Labour swept to victory at the last general election. Polling since has put Reform UK ahead of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s party, with Farage’s party storming ahead in local elections up and down the country ever since.
He said: “At the end of the day, at the election people will be choosing their future government – not having a fling, expressing a protest or demonstrating their impatience. And in that sense, I said, perhaps Nigel is peaking too soon.”
A poll in June from Ipsos showed Reform UK on a 34% share of the vote, the highest the pollster has ever recorded for Mr Farage’s outfit and nine percentage points ahead of Labour.
The former Cabinet member was also commenting ahead of regional votes in Wales and Scotland, with Reform UK tipped to come first in the Senedd election next year.
Polling by More In Common on behalf of Sky News found 28% of people in Wales would back Reform at the Senedd elections.
It put Plaid Cymru in second place on 26% and Labour in third place on 23%, before a long drop to the Conservatives on 10% and the Liberal Democrats on 7%.
If the results were replicated next year, it could mean the end of Labour’s 26 years of domination in Wales, where it has held power since devolution.
Lord Mandelson compared politics in the UK and US in a bid to explain Labour’s current predicament.
He told The Sunday Times both Sir Keir and US President Donald Trump won general elections last year on the back of public anger at being overlooked.
The peer said voters believed the system wasn’t delivering for them and they were being taken for granted.
But he said Britain’s situation was different because the country was travelling through a “long, dark tunnel” for a decade with “no signs of light or hope”.
Lord Mandelson added: “I feel people are emerging from that tunnel, almost blinking into the daylight.”