Christmas went off with a bang for Nigel Farage and Reform UK which saw the insurgent party’s membership best the Tories for the first time.
It was sour grapes from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who accused Reform of ”manipulating” its numbers, talking up “a fake clock coded to tick up automatically”.
Possible legal action by Farage because of this allegedly false claim is the least of Badenoch’s problems, however.
Failing to make a splash in her new job, Badenoch can only watch as Farage hijacks the “conservative” agenda, narrowing the gap with the Tories day by day.
Next year’s local elections will be a huge test for both leaders but frankly Badenoch has infinitely more to lose. For Farage, any council seats will be chalked up as a win, even if expectations are now reasonably high.
For Badenoch, potential big losses could seriously undermine her already-fragile credibility, as new in the leadership role as she is.
Not that Sir Keir Starmer can rest easy. Reform is nipping at Labour’s heels as well, as it opens up three-way marginals nationwide.
Still, Badenoch clearly has the most to lose, with her party having been overtaken by Reform in membership terms, and likely soon in terms of funding.
Will the polls narrowing, Badenoch’s future is increasingly contingent on how successful or not Farage and Reform are.
Her credibility, leadership and future hinge hugely on Mr Brexit and whether Reform’s momentum can be kept up in 2025.
Ultimately, with Tory credibility on the floor after a decade and a half of broken promises, the party leadership is something of a poisoned chalice.
Farage has the better hand to play and Badenoch, for now, can only hope he slips up.
