Nigel Farage would be forgiven for grinning from ear to ear after YouGov’s latest poll not only put his Reform UK ahead of all the other parties but had the Tories for the first time in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. The poll – for the Times and Sky News – put Reform on 29%, Labour on 22%, the Lib Dems on 17% and the Conservatives on 16%. This comes as poll after poll over the last month has Reform UK ahead of the pack, with other recent polls by Opinium and Techne also ranking Reform top on 29%.
Frankly, there is no good way to spin this for the Tories and their leader Kemi Badenoch. Meanwhile there is only so long this can be chalked up to last July’s general election defeat. As things stand, the best the Conservatives can hope for is being junior partner in a Reform-led coalition with Farage as PM and the Tories swallowed up by his insurgent party.
Yet there is a risk for the Reform leader in all this good news. While my sense is the optics of dumping Badenoch in favour of say Robert Jenrick would be catastrophic, this situation can only go on for so long.
Bad optics or not, there will come a breaking point. Badenoch’s newfound pivot to the economy may work but only if the Tories speak loudly and with authority.
The problem the Tories have however is that after 14 years of record debt, record immigration, poor economic growth and botching Brexit, the public has understandably switched off from their message.
Worse, in the social media vibes era, authenticity trumps everything else. This is Badenoch’s and the Tories’ Achilles heel. But an ongoing Conservative collapse in the polls is also the risk lurking for Farage.
A new Tory leader may not turn the tide, but they might. Honestly would they do worse? If Badenoch’s leadership is aiding Reform, her ejection as leader could hurt Farage’s party.
Every poll like YouGov’s brings that ejection closer. True, Reform has no record of government. But Labour and the Tory records look increasingly bad to the British public.
Many voters will be willing to take a punt on the newbies, throwing their hands up and asking: “Can Reform really do any worse?”
Sir Keir Starmer now sees Farage as his real opposition in Parliament, while the Independent newspaper revealed Tory MPs are openly meeting to discuss removing Badenoch.
Rumours even abound of a comeback for Boris Johnson, perhaps the only man in British politics with the charisma and brand to rival Farage, whatever his failures as PM.
While the next general election is likely four years away, the Tories cannot go on like this. But nor can Farage assume Reform’s trajectory goes inexorably upwards.
Every poll like YouGov’s carries risks, both for the Tories and Reform. As things stand Nigel Farage is heading to Number 10. But if a week is a long time in politics, four years is a lifetime.
