Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could potentially hold the balance of power following the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election, as shocking new polls indicate a challenging time ahead for both SNP and Scottish Labour.
John Swinney is predicted to lose more than 20 MSPs, with his numbers expected to drop from 64 to 42. Despite this, the SNP will still hold the most seats at Holyrood, but will fall short of securing another pro-independence majority.
There was also significant bad news for Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar, whose popularity has taken a hit due to Sir Keir Starmer’s poor start as Prime Minister.
Sarwar attempted to distance himself from the UK Government by promising to reinstate the winter fuel payment if he became First Minister, while denying that this move was in response to his declining satisfaction ratings.
The poll, commissioned by Angus Robertson’s Progress Scotland, showed Scottish Labour down four points from two months ago, standing at 27%.
If these polls prove accurate, Reform would be courted by both pro-Union and independence factions for support in running a minority administration. With no clear winner, a parliament of minorities would be left to dispute who becomes First Minister.
The SNP topped the constituency list with 31%, unchanged from previous figures, while the Conservatives, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats all saw a one-point increase to 14%, 10% and 9% respectively. The Greens maintained their 6%.
The SNP and Labour have both seen a one-point drop in the more proportional regional list, falling to 27% and 25% respectively.
The Tories and Reform each gained a point, rising to 15% and 11%, while the Greens held steady at 10%. The Lib Dems fell by one point to 9%, and Alba scored 3%.
According to projections by pollster Sir John Curtice, the SNP would secure 42 MSPs, Labour 34, the Conservatives 18, Reform 14, the Lib Dems 11, and the Greens 10.
This would leave the SNP and Greens 13 seats short of a pro-independence majority, and a potential coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems 20 short, meaning the Tories and Reform could play king-makers.
Farage is expected to announce a Scottish leader of Reform during the party’s first ever Scottish conference at the end of November.
Sarwar has maintained that he would form a minority administration but if the Scottlish Nationalists secure the most MSPs then Swinney is likely to stay on as First Minister.
He has managed to stem the losses brought on by Humza Yousaf but has so far failed to make any progress with voters.
