Nigel Farage – if the predictions are right – will not only be prime minister in a few years but will be one with the biggest Commons majority ever. A poll by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus – and shared first with the Daily Mail – suggests Reform would get 445 MPs if an election was held right now. The threshold to win an outright parliamentary majority is 326 MPs. For context – looking back at recent landslides – in 1997 Tony Blair’s Labour won 418 seats, in 2019 Boris Johnson’s Tories won 365, and in 2024 Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour won 411.
If the PLMR poll is correct, Labour would be reduced from 411 to 73 MPs, the Lib Dems would drop from 72 to 42 MPs, and the Tories (hold your breath!) would fall from 121 to just 7 seats – beaten even by Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party into sixth place. Ouch! Now, for the caveats. This poll assumes no tactical voting. With such voting – over one-third of Labour voters could hold their noses and vote Conservative to keep Reform out – and Farage could be deprived of his majority.
But Electoral Calculus has also found that over September 10-18, Reform has averaged 36% versus 21% for Labour and a mere 15% for the Tories. All eyes now on May’s local elections, after which Sir Keir and Tory boss Kemi Badenoch could face the chop.
To avoid the threat of tactical voting depriving Reform of a Commons majority, Farage and co need to capture that middle ground which traditionally swings elections.
While immigration is a major issue for voters – according to the PMLR poll – it came second to the economy and cost of living, voted the biggest issue for around 60% of voters. The NHS came third after immigration, with crime number four.
Reform knows it must cultivate a reputation for sound economic management, which its ongoing track record in local government will make or break. Then there is the enormous threat of tactical voting.
According to Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus: “Anti-Reform tactical voting means Reform’s poll lead isn’t as good as it looks, as the party could lose dozens of seats because many voters will vote for any candidate without a light-blue rosette.”
That said, Labour is at risk from voters splintering off to the Greens and Jeremy Corbyn, while the Tory vote is increasingly bleeding to both Reform and the Lib Dems, as the Conservatives once-prized ‘broad church’ fast becomes an electoral liability.
With a volatile electorate, and in the social media age, much will come down to personality as well as competence, authority as much as track record. Reform now must hold this lead into next year and beyond the May local elections.
After that, Reform’s lead becomes – if not unassailable – then at least formidable.