Sir Keir Starmer’s lofty promises for healthcare targets are likely to fall short despite an expected £30 billion boost set to be announced for the NHS by the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Ms Reeves, who is still reeling from a winter fuel U-turn, will splash the cash on the NHS as part of her spending review today.
But official analysis shows, despite the 2.8% real terms budget cash injection by Ms Reeves, it’s likely her boss, Sir Keir Starmer, will be left red-faced as his promised NHS waiting targets for routine operations are not going to be achieved. The PM promised 92% of patients would be treated within 18 weeks, but internal Department of Health modelling shows the NHS is on course to hit just 80% by the end of this parliament, or around March 2029.
Labour’s Health Secretary Wes Streeting has argued a new ten-year plan for the NHS due to be announced next month will improve efficiency, but a source told the Times, “Despite everything Wes has said, there are still people who haven’t got the message: it is neither affordable nor desirable to turn the NHS around through money alone.”
And Sally Gainsbury, from the Nuffield Trust think tank, said the Chancellor’s 2.8% would not begin to solve the problem. She added: “An extra 2.8 per cent in real terms will not fully cover the new demands the health service can expect each year, let alone eliminate previous problems like the waiting list backlog.”
Ms Reeves’s 2.8% boon to the NHS budget is also below the 3.6% the NHS has averaged over decades.
The Department of Health told the Times: “We continue to make strong progress towards delivering the 18-week standard, and are confident we will hit it by the end of the parliament.”
Ms Reeves will unveil her spending review today (Wednesday), arguing that her priorities are “the priorities of working people”.
The Chancellor is expected to focus on “Britain’s renewal” as she sets out her spending plans for the coming years, with big increases for the NHS, defence and schools. Arguing that the Government is “renewing Britain”, she will acknowledge that “too many people in too many parts of the country are yet to feel it”.
She will say: “This Government’s task – my task – and the purpose of this spending review is to change that, to ensure that renewal is felt in people’s everyday lives, their jobs, their communities.”
Among the main announcements is expected to be a £30 billion increase in NHS funding, a rise of around 2.8% in real terms, along with an extra £4.5 billion for schools and a rise in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
But today could present a tough prospect for other government as the Chancellor seeks to balance Labour’s commitments on spending with her fiscal rules. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has already warned that any increase in NHS funding above 2.5% is likely to mean real-terms cuts for other departments, or further tax rises to come in the budget this autumn.
This could mean a budgetary squeeze for areas such as local government, the justice system and the Home Office, despite reports that policing would receive an above-inflation settlement.